NZD/USD Forecast May 21, 2012, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD suffered on Friday as the commodity and global risk trade in general both failed. The pressure on the markets is palpable, and the riskier assets that the New Zealand dollar is generally correlated to all fell. The global concerns about a Chinese slowdown, the weaker US numbers, and the uncertainty in Europe all play a part in the Kiwi dollar falling. The 0.75 level is just below, and as a result we think this pair is aiming for it. (A nice round number.)

The pair is a “sell the rallies” kind of market now, and that is exactly what we are going to do. On signs of weakness after a rally, we sell the Kiwi. As for buying, we would have to see a close well above the 0.80 level to actually do it.