NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 30, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 07:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The NZD/USD added 7 pips to trade at 0.7924 after business confidence printed much higher this month than last coming in at

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis October 30, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD added 7 pips to trade at 0.7924 after business confidence printed much higher this month than last coming in at 26.5% against last month report of 13.4%. The US dollar remains flat ahead of the FOMC statement due in a few hours. New Zealand’s Reserve Bank policy review is on Thursday, which is expected to keep the key rate unchanged at 3.5 percent. Investors will be looking to see whether Governor Graeme Wheeler takes a softer tone on future hikes, given the tepid pace of inflation, which is at the bottom end of the bank’s tolerance range. “There’s not a lot to get excited about until the Reserve Bank on Thursday.

New Zealand’s total online spending was very strong in September, with spending up 13% on September last year. Online purchases at domestic merchants were up 9% on last September, and online purchases at offshore merchants were up 20%. Stand out major categories this month were Electrical and Electronic goods, Computers and Peripherals, and Other Specialized Food. Spending in each of these categories was up by more than 20% on September 2013.

New Zealand business confidence advanced for the first time in eight months in October, rebounding from a two-year low as certainty returned following last month’s general election. The New Zealand dollar rose after the survey was released. The business confidence report comes ahead of the Reserve Bank’s review of interest rates tomorrow where Governor Graeme Wheeler is expected to keep the benchmark rate at 3.5 percent following four hikes between March and July.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Industrial Production	2.7%	2.2%	-1.9%
NZD	Business Confidence	26.5%		13.4%
CAD	RMPI (MoM) (Sep)		-1.0%	-2.2%
USD	FOMC Statement
USD	Fed Funds Target Rate		0.25%	0.25%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	RBNZ Rate Statement
AUD	HIA New Home Sales			3.3%
GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM)		0.3%	-0.2%
GBP	MPC Member Cunliffe
EUR	Spanish GDP (QoQ)		0.5%	0.6%
EUR	German Unemployment		5K	13K
EUR	German Unemployment		6.7%	6.7%
USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		3.0%	4.6%
USD	GDP Price Index (QoQ)		2.0%	2.1%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		283K	283K
USD	Fed Chair Yellen
EUR	German CPI (MoM)		-0.1%	0.0%