Oil and Natural Gas Analysis: Crude Under Pressure, Gas Holds Support Amid Uncertainty

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (CL) consolidates near $62.40 per barrel after a continuous decline in the first half of August. The market is focused on geopolitical uncertainty ahead of the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting in Washington. Traders remain cautious of new developments that could shift global supply expectations.

Trump’s recent comments after his Alaska meeting with Putin eased supply concerns. He signalled no immediate need for retaliatory tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, though he left the door open for action in the coming weeks. This reduced risk premiums and weighed on crude prices. The upcoming talks with European leaders could add further volatility depending on the outcomes.

At the same time, US economic data support expectations of a September Fed rate cut. The lower borrowing costs could stimulate demand in the world’s largest oil consumer, offering some support for crude oil. Markets will focus on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for confirmation of easing, which could trigger a rebound in WTI prices.

WTI Crude Oil (CL) Technical Analysis

WTI Oil Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for WTI crude shows negative price action below the $77 area. Immediate support lies at $60 and $55.50, while the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA, confirming bearish momentum. A break below $55 will trigger strong selling pressure in the oil market. However, a breakout above $70 is needed to ease the short-term bearish pressure.

WTI Oil 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation with Bearish Bias

The bearish price action is also visible on the 4-hour chart, where WTI crude has broken below the $64 area and is approaching the $60 support level. A break below $60 would likely push prices toward the $55.50 level. The 4-hour chart also confirms that a recovery above $70 is needed to ease the bearish pressure in WTI crude.

Natural Gas (NG) Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Daily Chart – Key Support of $2.60-$2.70

The daily chart for natural gas (NG) shows that it has formed a cup and handle pattern and is now dropping toward the long-term support zone of $2.70–$2.60. The orange zone highlighted on the chart indicates that natural gas may initiate a rebound from this region back toward the 50-day SMA at the $3.20 level. The $2.70–$2.60 range remains the key long-term support, defined by the neckline of the cup and handle pattern.

Natural Gas 4-Hour Chart – Consolidation at Support

The 4-hour chart for natural gas shows that the price is consolidating within the $2.60–$2.90 support range. A rebound from this level could keep the price trading within the broader $2.60–$4.60 zone.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows consolidation at the 50-day SMA, with bearish price action developing. As long as the index remains below 100.50, it is likely to drop below 96 and move toward the 90 area. Moreover, the RSI is consolidating below the mid-level, reinforcing the bearish outlook for the US Dollar Index.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Negative Price Action

The 4-hour chart for the US dollar index shows a rebound from the support of an ascending broadening wedge pattern. Immediate resistance lies near the 99.20 area at the red dotted trendline. A breakout above this level would likely take the index toward the 100.50 area. However, as long as the index remains below 102.00, bearish pressure persists. A break below 97.70–96.60 would extend the downside move in the index.