Oil Fundamental Forecast – August 29, 2016

Crude Oil is slightly down at 47.12 off by 21 cents and Brent Oil is down 33 cents at 49.34. Oil prices steadied on speculation that next month’s informal meeting between OPEC and other major oil producers could result in production curbs. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum, which groups producers and consumers, in Algeria on Sept. 26-28.

There is speculation that OPEC and other producers led by Russia will agree to output curbs at the meeting. This deal is pointing to record OPEC production and a tendency by the group’s key members, such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, to protect their market share at the expense of prices.

Oil prices dipped Friday after Saudi Arabia’s oil minister cast doubt on the need to cut output, denting hopes for a deal at talks next month aimed at addressing a global supply glut.

The commodity rallied for seven straight sessions and entered a bull market – a 20 per cent rise from recent lows – last week after Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia announced plans to discuss the supply crisis, which has hammered the crude market for more than two years.

Prices have taken a beating this week on concerns about the chances of success at the Algeria meeting, but they turned higher on Thursday when Iran said it would join in, clearing up days of uncertainty over its attendance.

However, OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid Al-Falih revived worries about the success of the gathering.

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August 29, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Aug 25 18:00 US Holds 7yr note auction

Aug 26 10:10 Italy Holds zero coupon