Oil News: Can Crude Oil Extend Above the 200-Day Moving Average to Confirm Rally?

Light Crude Eyes Key Resistance as Supply Concerns Support Prices

Light crude oil futures are inching higher on Tuesday, underpinned by a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ production hike, ongoing Chinese stockpiling, and renewed geopolitical risks tied to Russia. However, technical resistance at the 200-day moving average remains a critical barrier for bullish momentum.

At 11:30 GMT, Light crude oil futures are trading $62.75, up $0.49 or +0.79%.

Will Light Crude Clear the 200-Day Moving Average at $63.31?

Traders are closely watching the 200-day moving average at $63.31, which remains a significant resistance zone. A sustained move above this level would shift the technical picture more bullish, opening the door for further upside toward the 50-day moving average at $64.40, followed by key pivot levels at $64.56 and $65.41. A breakout above $66.03, the swing top, would confirm broader upward strength.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $61.45, with major support at $61.12. A breakdown below this level could expose crude to a retest of the May low at $56.09—a critical line of defense for bulls.

OPEC+ Adds Less Than Expected—Is Supply Tightening?

OPEC+ announced it will raise production by just 137,000 barrels per day starting in October—well below previous increases of 550,000 bpd in August and September. This has added support to crude prices, with traders skeptical that even the modest hike will be fully realized. UBS and Saxo Bank analysts both highlighted the limited spare capacity across OPEC+, noting this leaves little buffer to absorb sudden supply shocks.

China Stockpiling Adds Another Layer of Support

China continues to act as a quiet stabilizer for crude markets. Analysts estimate that the country has been purchasing around 500,000 bpd for stockpiling, absorbing much of the excess global output. Gunvor’s chief strategist sees this trend persisting into 2026, suggesting a consistent underlying bid in the physical market.

Russia Sanctions Threaten to Tighten Global Supply

Geopolitical risk is also lending a bullish bias. Fresh speculation about additional sanctions on Russia followed reports of the country’s largest aerial strike on Ukraine to date. U.S. officials have indicated readiness for a new wave of restrictions, which could directly impact Russian oil exports and further strain global supply.

Rate Cut Expectations from Federal Reserve Offer Demand Boost

Adding to the bullish mix is growing anticipation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next meeting. Lower rates could stimulate economic activity and, in turn, support oil demand.

Oil Prices Forecast: Bullish Outlook Holds as Supply Concerns Dominate

Crude remains technically rangebound below its 200-day moving average, but the broader market tone is bullish. With OPEC+ supply tight, China absorbing barrels, and geopolitical risks rising, traders appear poised to test resistance levels. A firm break above $63.31 would likely attract follow-through buying, targeting the mid-$60s. Until then, support at $61.12 remains a key level to watch for short-term direction.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.