Oil News: Crude Prices Mixed as Iran Risk Builds but Trump Delay Stalls Rally

Geopolitical Tensions with Iran Keep Oil Traders on Edge

Crude prices edged lower Friday, capping a volatile week dominated by geopolitical stress after Israel’s military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities prompted retaliatory drone and missile attacks. Brent crude briefly surged over 3% Thursday before easing, though it remains up nearly 20% in June—on pace for its strongest monthly gain since 2020. Despite a short-term pullback, crude markets are holding firm on expectations of supply-side risks.

President Trump’s decision to delay U.S. policy action for two weeks introduces an additional layer of uncertainty for traders, but the broader market tone remains supported by rising premiums in the front-end of the Brent futures curve. With risk premiums tied to Iran’s strategic position in the Strait of Hormuz, oil remains bid as traders weigh the chances of a supply event.

At 13:01 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $73.32, down $0.18 or -0.24%.

OPEC’s Iran Threatens to Rattle Global Oil Supply Chains

As OPEC’s third-largest producer, Iran plays a pivotal role in the global crude trade. Nearly 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and any disruption could instantly tighten supply. Analysts warn of possible spillover if Iranian or Israeli strikes inadvertently target oil infrastructure.

So far, UBS notes that supply flows remain uninterrupted, but market pricing reflects heightened anxiety. As long as the conflict stays contained, oil may consolidate. However, any operational disruption or shipping interference could send prices significantly higher, reinforcing the risk premium already embedded in the curve.

Brent Futures Curve Flags Rising Short-Term Supply Risk

The front-month Brent contract’s growing premium over six-month futures hit a six-month high, highlighting near-term supply fears. With Brent around $77 per barrel, traders are eyeing the psychologically important $80 threshold. Analysts caution that a sustained move into the $80–$100 range could strain consumer demand and squeeze corporate margins.

Panmure Liberum estimates that a full-blown supply event or Strait of Hormuz disruption could drive Brent to $100. While speculative, this is no longer a fringe scenario given the region’s volatility and the strategic significance of shipping routes.

Federal Reserve and ECB Eye Energy Inflation Risks

Rising oil prices are once again fueling inflation concerns, with potential implications for global monetary policy. RBC estimates $75 oil could push U.S. inflation forecasts up by 0.5%, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy path. In Europe, inflation gauges are also ticking higher, reigniting fears of renewed price pressures.

According to Lombard Odier, sustained oil at $100 would trim global growth by 1% while adding 1% to inflation—a stagflation-like scenario that central banks are desperate to avoid.

Outlook: Bullish Tilt with Tactical Risk Management

The crude market leans bullish, supported by geopolitical risk and tightening near-term supply indicators. While physical flows remain stable, the Strait of Hormuz remains a pressure point, and any sign of disruption could rapidly reprice crude higher.

Traders should monitor OPEC+ export volumes, Iran’s military stance, and shipping data closely. Until tensions ease materially, the risk-reward calculus favors maintaining upside protection and tactical long positions in crude and energy-linked assets.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.