Oil News: Crude Oil Closes Near 50-Day MA as Geopolitical Risks Fuel Bullish Outlook

WTI Surges on Surprise Attack, Retests 50-Day Moving Average

Light crude oil futures rallied sharply on Friday, boosted by unexpected geopolitical developments.

The market found support at a short-term zone between $59.27 and $58.49, where buyers stepped in following a pullback. Prices surged to $60.65 before pulling back slightly to settle at $60.09, up $1.40 or +2.39% on the day.

The move confirmed $58.12 as a minor bottom and kept prices within reach of the 50-day moving average, currently acting as resistance at $60.82.

The 50-day moving average has been capping gains since October 27 and remains the key trend indicator. A sustained breakout above this level could trigger further upside toward the 200-day moving average at $61.52.

However, traders believe Friday’s gains were largely driven by buy stops, suggesting the move may not yet reflect committed long positions. A successful retest of the recent support zone followed by renewed buying would be the first real sign of sustainable bullish interest.

Russian Port Attack Raises Supply Fears

The rally in oil was fueled by geopolitical tension after Ukraine launched a drone strike on Russia’s Novorossiisk port, disrupting oil exports. The attack damaged an oil depot, a ship, and residential buildings, prompting Russian officials to halt exports through the key terminal.

The Novorossiisk port accounts for about 2.2 million barrels per day—roughly 2% of global crude supply—and the shutdown has intensified market concerns over potential long-term disruptions.

Analysts noted that the scale and impact of this attack were more significant than previous incidents. “Eventually, they could hit something that causes lasting disruption,” said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS, pointing to the increasing frequency and precision of Ukrainian strikes.

Sanctions and Storage Pressures Mount

Compounding the supply concerns are Western sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector. With the U.S. banning deals with major Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil after November 21, logistics are tightening.

According to JPMorgan, about 1.4 million barrels per day of Russian oil—nearly a third of its seaborne exports—has been diverted to tanker storage as sanctions slow unloading operations. The challenge is expected to worsen once the sanctions fully take effect.

Meanwhile, the U.S. rig count rose by three to 417 last week, suggesting a marginal increase in domestic production capacity, though not enough to offset the potential supply gap from Russia.

Short-Term Outlook: Bullish Bias with Key Hurdles Ahead

Crude oil prices are showing a bullish short-term outlook as traders respond to escalating supply risks tied to geopolitical tensions and sanctions. However, the market faces a critical test at the 50-day moving average.

A breakout above this level could attract follow-through buying, potentially pushing prices toward the 200-day moving average.

Traders will be watching for confirmation of real demand through a retest of support and sustained buying interest above resistance.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.