Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Surge on Russia Sanctions and Strong China Demand

Crude Oil Breaks Higher as Traders Focus on Russia Sanctions and China Demand

Light crude oil futures climbed to a three-week high on Monday, boosted by renewed geopolitical risk and firming demand signals.

The move follows a breakout above last week’s high and a decisive push away from the key long-term 50% retracement level at $67.44, suggesting building upside momentum.

At 11:07 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $69.42, up $0.97 or +1.42%.

OPEC+ Supply Uncertainty Grows with Russia Sanctions in Focus

Markets are closely monitoring U.S. policy developments as President Donald Trump prepares a statement on Russia that could have direct implications for oil supply.

Trump confirmed plans to send Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, escalating tensions with Moscow. Meanwhile, bipartisan momentum in Congress is driving new U.S. sanctions legislation, aiming to pressure Russia into peace talks.

European Union diplomats are also nearing consensus on an 18th round of sanctions targeting Russian crude, potentially with a lower price cap.

If enacted, these actions could constrict Russian exports and tighten global supplies, lending bullish support to crude in the short term.

China’s Crude Imports Hit 10-Month High, But Inventory Builds May Weigh

China’s crude oil imports rose 7.4% year-on-year in June to 12.14 million barrels per day, the highest since last August.

While this surge reflects stronger near-term demand, J.P. Morgan flagged risks from near-capacity storage levels, which now stand at 95% of their 2020 peak.

If these reserves are released into Western pricing hubs, they could temper upside moves in benchmark crude contracts.

Technical Outlook: Breakout Points to $71.20 and Beyond

From a technical perspective, WTI crude is showing bullish structure, having cleared its prior weekly high and firmed above the $67.44 pivot.

Immediate resistance lies at $71.20, a short-term pivot that may trigger fresh selling. However, a sustained move above this level could open the path toward the $78.40 resistance zone.

Key downside support rests at the long-term pivot of $67.44, followed by the 200-day moving average at $65.31 and the 50-day at $63.50—levels that may attract buying interest on any retracement.

Oil Prices Forecast: Bullish Bias with Geopolitical Risk and Demand Tailwinds

With increasing geopolitical risk tied to U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia, and strong import data from China, the outlook for oil remains bullish in the near term.

Momentum is building, and a break above the $71.20 pivot would likely accelerate upside moves.

However, traders should stay alert to any signs of Chinese crude inventories being released into the market, which could limit gains in the weeks ahead.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.