Oil News: Crude Oil Holds $65.38 Long-Term Support Pivot as Fed, OPEC Signals Drive Outlook

Crude Oil Holds Support as Fed, EU Sanctions, and Trade Tariffs Stir Uncertainty

Crude oil futures settled marginally lower on Friday, with NYMEX WTI closing at $66.05, down $0.18 or 0.27%. Despite the dip, the contract held above a key support level at $65.38, with further backing from the 200-day and 50-day moving averages at $64.07 and $63.00, respectively. Price action remains constrained between near-term support and resistance as traders assess competing macro signals.

Mixed U.S. Economic Signals Complicate Federal Reserve Outlook

On the macro front, fresh U.S. data sent conflicting messages to crude traders. June housing starts for single-family homes dropped to an 11-month low, signaling weakness in construction demand, while economic uncertainty and high mortgage rates persist.

However, improving consumer sentiment and falling inflation expectations in July suggested a more favorable environment for consumer activity. Lower inflation would increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease interest rates, which could in turn support economic activity and energy consumption.

OPEC Supply Risk Dwarfed by Tepid Reaction to Russia Sanctions

Meanwhile, new European Union sanctions on Russia—its 18th package targeting oil-related exports—failed to spark a bullish reaction. Investors appear skeptical about the effectiveness of further sanctions, especially with key Russian crude flows redirected through India and Turkey. While the EU is banning petroleum products refined from Russian crude, exceptions for imports from countries like the U.S., Canada, and Switzerland undercut the measure’s bite.

Market analysts also flagged concern over diesel supply disruptions to Europe. With India, a top importer of Russian crude, now designated in the EU’s enforcement scope, European refiners may struggle to backfill diesel imports—a factor that could tighten refined product markets in the near term.

Chevron-Hess Deal Underscores Long-Term U.S. Supply Resilience

On the corporate front, Chevron completed its $55 billion acquisition of Hess, securing a stake in the Guyana offshore reserves—the largest new oil discovery in decades. This development enhances U.S. production potential, especially as American majors consolidate assets in anticipation of long-term global demand, further cushioning WTI supply outlooks.

Oil Prices Forecast: Neutral Bias Until Break Above $68.34 or Below $64.11

From a technical standpoint, WTI crude remains rangebound. Resistance lies at $68.34, followed by a short-term pivot at $69.89. Support sits at $64.11 and the 200-day SMA. A sustained close above $68.34 would open the door to renewed upside, but failure to hold the $64 region risks a retracement to $62.69 or lower.

Given the tug-of-war between monetary policy signals, geopolitics, and supply-side developments, the oil market maintains a neutral to mildly bullish bias—but traders will need a decisive breakout for confirmation.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.