Oil News: EU Sanctions Fail to Sway Crude Oil Outlook as Supply Risk Stays Muted

Limited Impact From EU Measures on Russian Crude Supply

Crude oil prices edged slightly lower on Monday, with Brent holding near $68.45 and WTI trading around $66.00. The market showed little reaction to the European Union’s 18th round of sanctions against Russia, which included a ban on refined oil products processed from Russian crude in third countries.

Analysts remain unconvinced the latest measures will significantly tighten global supply. ING noted that while the sanctions may affect some flows, enforcement is expected to be difficult.

Onyx Capital Group’s Harry Tchiliguirian said the oil balance is unlikely to shift meaningfully, adding that “Russians have been very good at circumventing these kinds of sanctions.”

Kremlin officials also stated that Russia has developed a certain resilience to Western restrictions, further reducing the sanctions’ potential bite.

Iran Talks and Sanction Risk Add to Geopolitical Watchlist

Focus is also turning to Iran, where nuclear negotiations with Britain, France, and Germany are set to resume in Istanbul on Friday. A breakdown in talks could lead to the reimposition of international sanctions, tightening one of the few remaining potential sources of supply growth.

While no immediate supply change is expected from Iran, the geopolitical overhang remains. For traders, a failure in talks raises the likelihood of stricter enforcement on Iranian exports, which would further narrow available barrels in an already delicate balance.

U.S. Tariff Deadline Adds Market Headwind

Meanwhile, U.S. tariffs on EU imports are scheduled to begin August 1, raising trade concerns that extend beyond oil. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick voiced optimism on reaching a deal with the European Union, but in the interim, tariff risk continues to cap crude’s upside.

IG analyst Tony Sycamore said market sentiment is being weighed down by the pending trade deadline. He added that any bullish surprise would likely need to come from a tightening in U.S. crude inventories.

Last week, the Baker Hughes rig count dropped by two to 422, the lowest since September 2021, suggesting potential softness in future U.S. output.

Oil Prices Forecast: Neutral Bias With Bearish Pressure

Crude remains locked in consolidation. WTI is expected to trade in a $64–$70 range, while Brent holds between $67 and $72. Notably, Light crude oil (WTI) is holding above both its 50-day moving average at $63.20 and its 200-day moving average at $62.10, providing a layer of technical support that limits immediate downside risk.

Still, without a meaningful geopolitical disruption or bullish inventory print, the market leans slightly bearish, pressured by weak demand cues and unresolved trade uncertainty.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.