Oil News: OPEC+ Adds 547,000 bpd as Crude Falls Toward 50-Day MA at $64.90

Crude Oil Drops as OPEC+ Output Hike and Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Sentiment

Light crude oil futures opened lower Monday, breaking below a key short-term pivot at $67.31 and signaling a potential shift toward a deeper retracement. Last week’s rally briefly pushed prices up to $70.51, testing a long-term resistance band anchored by a pivot at $69.89.

However, the failure to hold above $67.31 has opened the door for a test of key support levels, including the 50% retracement level at $65.38, the 50-day moving average at $64.90, and the 200-day at $64.08.

At 10:15 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $66.40, down $0.93 or -1.38%.

OPEC+ Supply Hike Puts Pressure on Oil Prices

Crude oil prices fell sharply after OPEC+ confirmed plans to raise production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This supply increase, while widely anticipated, marks a full rollback of the group’s largest output cut—roughly 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4% of global demand.

Although the headline figure is substantial, Goldman Sachs notes that actual supply growth will likely total around 1.7 million bpd, due to offsetting reductions from members who had previously overproduced.

The accelerated return of OPEC+ barrels comes as the market continues to assess the impact of rising trade protectionism. Recent U.S. tariffs on goods from multiple countries have added another layer of uncertainty for commodity markets, including crude oil.

Russia Sanctions Cloud Global Supply Outlook

Geopolitical risks remain elevated, particularly around Russian crude flows. U.S. threats to impose 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil have already impacted trade routes.

At least two Russian cargoes bound for India were diverted, and according to ING, as much as 1.7 million bpd of supply could be at risk if Indian refiners back out.

Still, India appears committed to maintaining energy ties with Moscow. Two Indian officials confirmed the country would continue importing Russian crude despite political pressure. This stance could limit near-term supply disruptions, but the threat of more sanctions remains a volatile driver.

Oil Prices Forecast: Near-Term Bearish Bias

With crude futures below the $67.31 pivot and momentum favoring the downside, traders are bracing for a deeper pullback toward the $65–$64 support range.

The combination of rising OPEC+ output and uncertain demand impacts from geopolitical and tariff-related pressures suggests limited upside for now. Unless prices reclaim key resistance, the near-term oil prices projection leans bearish.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.