Oil News: WTI Holds Steady with OPEC+ Seen Keeping Output Unchanged and Supply Rising

Crude Oil Steadies as CME Comes Back Online — But Supply Overhang Looms

WTI resumed trading at $59.09 after the CME outage cleared, dropping back into a tight retracement zone between $58.44 and $59.23. The early freeze — triggered by a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers — left U.S. crude sidelined while Brent traded flat on ICE. Now that screens are live again, traders face a tricky post-holiday session with thin volumes and conflicting signals.

At 13:32 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $59.08, up $0.43 or +0.73%.

Caught Between Headlines and Fundamentals

The market’s been whipsawed this week. Early losses came fast when Russia-Ukraine peace talks looked like they might go somewhere — traders priced in potential sanctions relief and more barrels hitting the market. But negotiations stalled, and crude clawed back ground over the past three sessions. As PVM’s John Evans put it, there’s no immediate sanctions relief, but hope for a future settlement is keeping a lid on any real rally.

Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting isn’t expected to deliver surprises. The group looks set to hold output steady and punt on production hikes into Q1 2026. That’s the kind of status quo the market can digest — but it doesn’t solve the bigger problem.

The Surplus Everyone Sees Coming

Analysts aren’t mincing words: 2026 is shaping up to be a year of oversupply. Reuters polled 35 forecasters, and the consensus has Brent averaging $62.23 next year — down from $68.80 so far in 2025. WTI forecasts slipped too, now pegged at $59.00. Surplus estimates range from 500,000 to 4.2 million barrels per day, depending on who you ask.

Saudi Arabia’s already signaling the pressure. Riyadh is expected to cut its January crude price for Asian buyers to a five-year low — a clear nod to the supply glut on the horizon.

What’s Holding the Floor?

Geopolitical risk premium, mostly. U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft could create short-term disruptions, though most expect Russian barrels to find their way back via shadow fleets. Declining U.S. shale output and lingering headline risk should keep a floor somewhere around $60. HSBC’s Kim Fustier noted OPEC+ probably won’t cut again unless Brent drops below $55 for an extended stretch.

Technical View: Testing Retracement Zone

With WTI reopening inside the $58.44–$59.23 zone, the near-term picture is neutral. A sustained push above $59.23 could open a run toward the 50-day moving average at $60.17 — a level that’s capped rallies all month and defined the downtrend since late October. On the downside, a break below $58.44 signals sellers are back in control, with the November 25 low at $57.10 as the next target.

Bottom Line

Buyers aren’t chasing this bounce — not with OPEC+ on deck and a surplus baked into next year’s forecasts. The post-holiday session will be choppy, and low volume cuts both ways. For now, crude’s stuck between a floor built on geopolitical uncertainty and a ceiling defined by too much oil.

More Information in our Light Crude Oil Futures.