Oil Price Forecast: Middle East Tensions Keep WTI and Brent Poised for Breakout

Oil prices remain strong due to increasing geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Tensions between U.S. and Iran keep markets nervous. Any threat of conflict brings fears of supply disruption in the Middle East. This risk premium is supporting crude oil near recent highs. As long as talks are uncertain, oil will likely have an upward bias.

The nuclear talks bring a definite spice of volatility. Traders are responding to headlines and statements. If talks fail then the market will price in tighter supply risks. That could help push Brent back into $74. However, any advance in negotiations may have cooling effect on prices and trigger a pullback.

U.S. trade policy also influences demand for oil. Higher tariffs have potential to slow global trade and economic activity. The slower the growth, the weaker the fuel consumption. This caps strong rallies in crude despite geopolitical tension. Therefore, oil prices trade in tight consolidation but at elevated levels.

Military and security developments in the Middle East create an upside risk for oil prices. The withdrawal of U.S. staff in Beirut is symptomatic of the growing concern about the conflict. Attacks on key infrastructure, such as the Druzhba pipeline, remind markets of the fragility of supply. Small breaks can increase tightness in regional flows. This keeps traders cautious and in support of higher prices. Overall oil prices reflect a balance between risk and demand worries as geopolitical uncertainty pushes prices higher while trade crisis limits gains.

WTI Crude Builds Bullish Momentum Toward Key $70 Breakout

The monthly chart of WTI crude oil shows a strong rebound from the midline of the descending channel pattern. The price produced a strong reversal candle in January 2026, and it is now rising above January’s high.

The immediate resistance remains $68-$70, and a break above this level will introduce a strong surge in the WTI crude oil market. The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are triggering a strong rally in WTI crude oil.

The daily chart for WTI crude oil also shows that the price is now breaking out of the $66 to $62 consolidation and moving towards the immediate resistance of 68.50. This resistance is seen by the descending trend line coming from April 2024 highs. A break above $70 will trigger a strong rally towards $77 to $80.

The short-term price action for WTI crude oil shows bullish construction above $55. The formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern above $55 and the breakout from $62 indicates that the prices are moving towards $70.

Despite this bullish construction, a break above $70 is required to keep the oil market within a strong bullish trend. On the other hand, a break below $62 will indicate further downside towards the $55 area.

The short-term trend for WTI crude oil also remains bullish, as seen by the ascending channel pattern on hourly chart. Now the price is consolidating around the midline of this channel, and a break above $68 will likely push it towards $70.

Brent Crude Tests Key Resistance as Bullish Momentum Builds

Brent crude oil is also trading at the critical region on the weekly chart below. However, last week’s strong close indicates that Brent crude oil may continue to trade higher during the next few days. A successful break above the black descending trend line will indicate further upside towards the $80–$83 region. Moreover, the RSI is trending higher above the midline, which indicates continued bullish momentum.

The daily chart for Brent crude oil also shows that the price has reached the strong resistance of $72 to $74. A successful break above this region will take prices above $81. This breakout will also break the descending broadening wedge pattern, which indicates bullish price action towards the $90 area.

Bottom Line

Oil prices remain strong as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep supply risks at forefront amid trade uncertainty limiting demand growth. The market is now watching the outcome of talks between US and Iran and escalation in conflict could push WTI and Brent higher.

From technical perspective, WTI crude oil must break above $68-$70 for a stronger rally, while Brent crude oil must break $72-$74 range to open the way for higher targets. At the same time, failure to break these resistance levels or indications of easing of tensions may cause short-term pullbacks. Overall, the structure is bullish, but the next big move will be dependent on geopolitical headlines and key technical breakouts.

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