Oil Price Forecast: WTI Rebounds as Brent Eyes $100 Amid Supply Risks

Oil price corrects slightly on Thursday as some tankers were able to pass through the Strait despite the rising violence. Brent oil fell to $91.60 per barrel, while WTI oil dropped to $83.70. This drop was developed after the previous session marked big gains. There was evidence of oil being shipped via alternative methods. This reduced concerns of an imminent and drastic supply shortage. Thereby, traders took profits after the good price rally.

But the overall risk factor for oil prices is high. The Strait of Hormuz is still largely closed and attacks have been extended to Iraq, Jordan and the Red Sea. The region’s oil supplies could be further affected by new threats against Saudi oil facilities and tanker traffic. These risks could keep the WTI and Brent oil supported. If energy infrastructure is severely damaged or tanker movements are reduced again, oil prices will spike.

WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis as $77.50 Support Drives Rebound

The 4-hour chart for WTI crude oil shows that oil prices rebounded strongly from the $77.50 support which is defined by the neckline of the rounding bottom pattern. This rebound has pushed the price back above the black dotted trend line that stretches from the 7 April 2026 high.

The strong rebound from the neckline of the rounding bottom pattern indicates a short-term positive structure and further upside. But a break below $77.50 will push the oil price further down towards the $70 area.

The RSI hit the oversold level as the price reached the strong support region and continues to rebound. This indicates further upside in the short term.

The daily chart for WTI crude oil also shows the strong support at $80.50, where the rebound was developed. Oil prices have been trading between $66 and $120 during the past few months which indicates strong volatility.

Brent Crude Oil Price Analysis as $100 Breakout Comes Into Focus

Brent oil price rebounded from the $85 support and reached above the $90 area. This rebound was triggered exactly at the intersection of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, which was a strong pivotal point.

A break below $85 will break the short-term trend and push prices back towards the $81 area. But a strong recovery above the $93 area will push Brent crude oil towards $100. Overall, Brent crude oil shows a positive structure and continues to rally.

It is interesting to note that when Brent crude oil previously hit the $85 support, the RSI reached the midline, which indicates the likelihood of positive momentum.

The weekly chart for Brent crude oil also highlights strong consolidation and volatility in the weekly candle. The chart shows that Brent dropped from the strong resistance at the $100 area and produced a sharp shadow on last week’s candle. However, the recent correction towards the short-term support at $85 introduced a rally.

If oil prices close back above $100 at the end of the week, the possibility of positive momentum next week will increase dramatically. But a confirmed break and close above the $100 area on a weekly basis will increase the possibility of further upside towards the $120 area.

Bottom Line

Oil prices remain supported despite the slight correction on Thursday. The tanker movements and alternative shipping routes have reduced the fears of immediate supply shortage. But the tensions between US and Iran remain unresolved and the ongoing escalation may keep the oil market open to sudden price spikes. WTI maintains the positive short term structure above $77.50 while Brent remains supported above $85. A Brent recovery above $93 could push the price towards $100 while a weekly close above $100 may open the way towards $120. But a break below $85 could weaken the bullish outlook and trigger deeper correction.

Read more: WTI and Brent Eye Support as Iran Talks Ease Tensions