On-Chain Data Reveals Why Solana (SOL) Has Not Reached $300 Yet

Solana (SOL) has performed positively in the past 30 days with a 5.5% gain and has surpassed the $200 psychological threshold already.

However, one wonders why this token has not made a new all-time high at a point when BNB Coin (BNB) has booked an 87% year-to-date (YTD) return, which is more than 4 times Solana’s return during that same period.

On-chain metrics reveal that transaction volumes and daily active addresses have been plummeting for a while, reflecting that the network is struggling to keep growing its ecosystem while its competitors seem to be doing just fine.

Solana On-Chain Metrics (Weekly) – Source: Artemis

Data from Artemis and Glassnode confirm this trend. Daily active addresses (DAAs), a measure of traders’ engagement, have declined from 5.8 million to 2.7 million since the year started, meaning a staggering 54% drop.

One could argue that January was a good month for the network amid the launch of Official Trump (TRUMP) and Melania Meme Coin (MELANIA), but the downtrend started back on November 18 when DAAs peaked at 7.4 million.

Meanwhile, weekly transaction volumes have plummeted from 724 million to 500 million in 2025, resulting in a 31% retreat.

Both of these metrics indicate that network activity has hit a temporary peak and is about to normalize to pre-election levels, and the same goes for traders’ interest in the Solana ecosystem.

Alpenglow Upgrade Could Change Things for Solana

In a bull market like this, with institutional adoption accelerating, and upon considering some headwinds like the launch of billionaire Solana treasuries and the early success of the first spot plus staking exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, this trend is a bit worrying.

For what it is worth, Solana has maintained its second place in the DeFi ecosystem in terms of total value locked (TVL) at $12.5 billion, followed at a still decent distance by the BNB Chain with a much lower figure of $9.2 billion.

The Alpenglow upgrade could change things for Solana and accelerate institutional adoption of the network for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), as it will bring down the blockchain’s transaction processing speeds from 12 seconds to 150 milliseconds.

These are pretty impressive numbers that will make Solana nearly as fast as the internet. The upgrade should be implemented at some point in the first quarter of 2026.

Bullish Structure Intact Despite Latest Downturn

Despite these worrying on-chain metrics, SOL maintains a bullish structure in the daily chart that could result in a breakout to higher highs.

SOL/USD Daily Chart (Kraken) – Source: TradingView

The token has respected its trend line support quite well during the latest pullback, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) just sent a buy signal after rising above the 14-day moving average.

The key support area to watch is $205 – $200 as it matches the token’s trend line support with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). A move below this level could mark the beginning of a much deeper correction.

We could see SOL rising to $500 during this cycle if positive momentum picks up its pace and leads to a move above $300. Above-average trading volumes would support a bullish outlook if that breakout occurs.

However, if this downtrend in transaction volumes and traders’ interest in the ecosystem continues, some other altcoins with much better prospects could outperform SOL in the long term.