Peabody Energy (BTU) Price Forecast: Base Breakout Eyes $42–$46 Surge

Base Breakout Evolution

Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) stock nears completion of its first pullback after a multi-year base breakout, signaling potential upside continuation. Peabody Energy produces thermal and metallurgical coal globally. An initial high for the base pattern was established at the 2022 peak of $33.29. Following that high, the price of BTU declined by 70.6% to a low of $9.61 in April 2025.

Demand subsequently improved, leading to a relatively steady advance and a failed breakout attempt to a high of $35.99 in October. That breakout was confirmed by a daily close above the prior high but not on a weekly basis. A relatively shallow pullback retraced slightly more 38.2% of the full uptrend starting from the April 2025 low, signaling strong demand and a continuation of the bull trend.

Higher Lows Build Momentum

Following the generation of a higher swing low at $24.60 in late October, BTU advanced to recover the $33.29 high and then the $35.99 high, before hitting a new trend high of $39.95 in January. The bearish retracement that followed established a higher swing low at $30.28 in late February near a support confluence. Support for the correction was found near a prior swing high from November 2024, the 100-day moving average, and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This higher low reinforces the case for the bullish trend resumption.

Flag Setup Emerges

A bullish flag pattern has formed within a key support zone, positioning BTU for a potential advance extension. Last week, the stock initiated a move above the top trendline of the pattern, with support holding at the 50-day moving average. The past three sessions have tested and held the 50-day line. A recent swing high from the flag formation is at $36.39, which defines the breakout trigger for the flag. An initial attempt to rally above that high last Thursday reached a new high of $36.50.

Breakout Targets & Outlook

If the flag breakout confirms via a daily close above $36.50, initial targets for BTU are the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the current pullback at $42.58 and a 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $45.93. Beyond that lies the record high of $47.84 from June 2018. Resistance may be encountered there yet a bullish breakout could lead to a trend extension, extending BTU’s breakout momentum from that pivotal 2022 base high.

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