Vivek Kumar
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The world’s largest pharmaceutical company Pfizer is likely to post this year’s earnings in the range of $3 to $3.10 per share, according to chief executive officer Albert Bourla, speaking at a JP Morgan healthcare conference, Reuters reported.

That is also in line with the market expectations of $3.07 per share.

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The company which ranked 64th on the 2020 Fortune 500 list of the largest United States corporations by total revenue, is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 2, 2021.

“We expect $39 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021, and we see Pfizer/BioNTech dominating the vaccine market with nearly $14 billion in 2021 sales,” wrote Karen Andersen, sector strategist at Morningstar.

“Although we remain skeptical  of  AstraZeneca’s  ability  to  penetrate  the  U.S. market due to mixed phase 3 data so far, we assume the U.S. will see sufficient supply from Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, Novavax (70% probability), and Johnson & Johnson (50% probability)  to  achieve  herd  immunity  by  mid-2021.”

At the time of writing, Pfizer shares traded about 2% lower at $37.05 on Tuesday; the stock fell about 1% in 2020.

Pfizer Stock Price Forecast

Eleven analysts who offered stock ratings for Pfizer in the last three months forecast the average price in 12 months at $42.09 with a high forecast of $53.00 and a low forecast of $36.00.

The average price target represents a 13.97% increase from the last price of $36.93. From those eleven analysts, three rated “Buy”, eight rated “Hold” and none rated “Sell”, according to Tipranks.

Morgan Stanley gave a base target price of $40 with a high of $48 under a bull scenario and $33 under the worst-case scenario. The firm currently has an “Equal-weight” rating on the pharmaceutical company’s stock.

Several other analysts have also recently commented on the stock. Pfizer has been given a $40.00 target price by analysts at The Goldman Sachs. The firm currently has a “neutral” rating. Truist began coverage and issued a “buy” rating with $42.00 price target on the stock. Mizuho raised their price target to $44 from $43 and gave the company a “buy” rating.

In addition, BidaskClub cut shares of Pfizer to a “strong sell” rating from a “sell”. Barclays raised their price target to $37 from $35 and gave the company an “equal weight” rating. At last, Atlantic Securities cut shares to a “neutral” rating from an “overweight” rating and dropped their price target to $39 from $44.


Analyst Comments

“We project solid growth prospects, and the company’s COVID-19 vaccine offers significant accretion potential in 2021. But we expect COVID-19 vaccine sales and profits to decline significantly in 2022 and 2023,” noted David Risinger, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley.

“Pfizer’s dividend is set to adjust down in spring 2021 when Viatris begins paying a dividend. Pipeline execution will be key to investor perception, given late-decade patent expiration exposure.”

Upside and Downside Risks

Risks to Upside: Upside risks are COVID-19 vaccine sales above expectations, competitors’ vaccines less efficacious, core business financial upside, positive pipeline developments, and encouraging strategic action– highlighted by Morgan Stanley.

Risks to Downside: Downside risks are COVID-19 vaccine disappointments, core business shortfalls, pipeline disappointments, disappointing strategic action, and negative US drug pricing developments.

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