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Kenny Fisher
Silver daily chart, September 04, 2019

Silver prices appear to have taken a cue from the currency markets, with little activity to report on Wednesday. In the European session, XAG/USD is trading at 18.11, up just $0.09 on the day.

Inflation, Retail Sales Could Cause Volatility

The lack of movement this week contrasts sharply with the previous week, which was marked by strong volatility. Silver posted strong gains early last week and appeared to be heading toward the round number of 20, which has psychological significance. However, XAG/USD was unable to consolidate and gave up all of these gains late last week.  Once again, the 20-level has displayed strong resistance; it was last tested in September 2016. I expect the metal to hover between 18.00-18.60 on Wednesday. Things could change after that, as the U.S. releases CPI on Thursday and retail sales on Friday, and traders should treat these events as market-movers.

XAG/USD 1-Day Chart

Will this week’s key U.S. reports affect the movement of silver? Very possibly, as the metal has been acting as a save-haven asset since the summer, much like gold. Both commodities have benefited from escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, as well as the dovish stance of major central banks worldwide, especially the Federal Reserve. This has soured investor risk appetite and boosted safe-haven assets, such as silver and gold. In short, if the forecasts for inflation and retail sales are off the mark, we could see stronger movement from XAG/USD.

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