Silver Prices Forecast: Reaction to $30.00 Barrier Sets Market Tone

James Hyerczyk
Published: May 16, 2024, 11:19 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • Silver prices fall after touching the year's high earlier.
  • Inflation report raises hopes for a Fed rate cut.
  • Weak dollar and Treasury yields support silver prices.
Silver Prices Forecast

In this article:

Silver Prices Edge Lower After Hitting New High

Silver prices are edging lower on Thursday after hitting a new high for the year earlier in the session. The subsequent sell-off suggests the market may form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This price action indicates that bearish traders are aggressively defending the psychological $30.00 level, which could trigger an even steeper breakout to the upside.

Despite this, the market remains near a one-month high, influenced by expectations of decreasing Treasury yields and a weaker U.S. Dollar due to softer-than-anticipated U.S. consumer inflation data.

At 11:07 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $29.68, unchanged.

Inflation Data Sparks Interest Rate Cut Speculation

Silver is benefitting from the latest inflation report, which has bolstered hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% in April, down from a 0.4% increase in March and February, signaling a potential cooling of inflation. This data strengthens the financial market’s expectation of a Fed rate cut by September, with traders now pricing in about a 74% chance of this outcome according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Dollar and Treasury Yields Influence Silver

Following the CPI release, the dollar weakened by 0.6% against a basket of other major currencies, reaching its lowest level in over a month. This decline in the dollar’s value makes silver more attractive to holders of other currencies. Concurrently, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell to a more than one-month low, further supporting silver prices. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, adding to its appeal.

Market Analysts’ Views on Rate Cut Timing

Despite the positive outlook for a rate cut, some analysts remain skeptical. They point out that while the recent inflation data has reduced the likelihood of immediate rate hikes, the Federal Reserve may still be cautious about lowering rates too soon. Persistent inflation in key areas such as services and owner’s equivalent rent suggests that achieving the Fed’s 2% target might be challenging without further significant reductions in inflation.

Economic Indicators Show Mixed Signals

In addition to the inflation data, the Commerce Department reported flat retail sales for the month, falling short of the expected 0.4% increase. This suggests that consumer spending, a critical component of economic health, may be losing momentum, potentially easing the Fed’s task of managing inflation.

Short-term Market Forecast

Given the current economic indicators and market sentiment, silver prices are likely to face volatility in the short term. The bullish outlook is supported by the weakening dollar and lower Treasury yields. However, uncertainty over the timing of the Fed’s rate cuts could cap gains. Traders should closely monitor further economic data releases and Fed communications for clearer guidance on silver’s direction.

Technical Analysis

Daily Silver (XAG/USD)

XAG/USD is showing signs of heightened volatility on Thursday as it hovers between advances and declines just short of the key $30.00 level.

Today’s price action suggests resistance at $30.00 and a lower close could form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. While this pattern is not a change in trend, it could lead to a 2 to 3 day correction of the current short-term rally.

Essentially, bullish traders are faced with the choice of chasing the market higher through $30.00, or playing for a pullback into $27.93.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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