Silver Prices Forecast: XAG/USD Surges in Thin Holiday Trade

Silver Prices Surge in Thin Market

Silver prices saw a significant uptick on Monday as traders capitalized on a thin market due to bank holidays in the United States and the United Kingdom. The technical rebound signals that investors are still inclined to “buy the dip” despite the sharp declines experienced mid-week. Early this week, market watchers are focused on whether the current bull market will continue or if a correction is on the horizon. The daily chart shows considerable downside potential, with the 50-day moving average at $27.61 providing major support.

At 11:41 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $30.86, up $0.495 or +1.63%.

Early Week Surge and Mid-Week Pullback

Silver began last week with strong gains, fueled by factors such as U.S. interest rate cut expectations, China’s economic stimulus, and geopolitical tensions. This momentum propelled silver to an 11-year peak. However, the rally lost steam as traders engaged in profit-taking following the release of hawkish Federal Reserve minutes. Economic data released on Thursday further supported the likelihood of delayed rate cuts, contributing to the swift retreat in prices.

Inflation Report in Focus

The upcoming release of the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday is garnering significant attention. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, its results could heavily impact silver prices. Historically, silver acts as a hedge against inflation, but its appeal diminishes when interest rates rise, increasing the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

If U.S. economic data continues to exceed expectations, silver prices may face further declines. Recently, bullish sentiment has weakened, with some investors liquidating positions or turning bearish. This shift is influenced by the Federal Reserve’s commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for a prolonged period.

Fed’s Outlook and Market Reactions

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting indicated that reaching the 2% inflation target might take longer than anticipated. This has moderated market expectations for rate cuts, with traders now assigning only a 62% probability of a rate reduction by November 2024, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Market Forecast

Given the current market situation, the outlook for silver remains cautious. While technical indicators suggest room for a downside correction, the upcoming inflation report and ongoing economic data will be pivotal in determining short-term price movements. Traders should prepare for potential volatility and monitor key support levels closely.

Technical Analysis

The key trends are up during Monday’s thin-holiday trade.

The short-term range is $32.52 to $30.04, making its pivot at $31.28 the primary upside target of today’s rally.

A trade through $30.04 could be the catalyst that triggers the start of a steep decline into the uptrending 50-day moving average at $27.61.