Silver has fallen rather significantly during the week, but on Friday ended up bouncing from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Silver markets have fallen a bit during the course of the week, breaking down below the 200-Week EMA. At this point, it looks like the $21 level is trying to offer support, and it’s likely that area will continue to be important. Beyond that, it’s also where the 50% Fibonacci level hangs about, and therefore I think a lot of people will be paying close attention to them. If we were to break down below there, then it’s possible that we could go down to the 61.8% Fibonacci level which sits just above the psychologically crucial $20 level.
When I look at this chart, I can also make an argument that if we break above the $22 level, the market is ready to go much higher. At that point, the $24 level is likely to be a target, and you should also keep in mind that the market has been very volatile as of late, and therefore a little bit of a recovery bounce could attract a lot of attention.
Keep in mind the silver is an industrial metal as well as a precious one, so I do think that we have a situation where the economic indicators will continue to play havoc with silver, but you can also take a look at the US dollar, where the negative correlation continues to be crucial. All things being equal, I do think that eventually the buyers return, but we also need to see the US dollar to fall down a bit, or perhaps traders start to look at metals as a way of preserving wealth again. Silver tends to be extraordinarily volatile, so keep your position size reasonable.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.