The silver market has broken down rather significantly during the course of the week, to reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Silver has gotten crushed during the course of the week, reaching down to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to, not to mention the fact that the 200-Week EMA sits right around that general vicinity. That being said, the candlestick for the trading week was horrific, so it does suggest that perhaps there is going to be further downward pressure. If we break down below the 200-Week EMA, then we could go much lower, perhaps dropping all the way down to the $20 level. All things being equal, this is a market that I think could underperform gold, which makes quite a bit of sense considering that silver is highly attached to the industrial output.
That being said, with industry perhaps suffering in a shrinking economy, I actually prefer to buy gold if I’m going to buy precious metals at all. Furthermore, you have to pay close attention to the US dollar because there is a huge negative correlation between the 2 markets, so the US Dollar Index should be something you are paying attention to frequently. Simply put, if the US dollar starts to fall, then it could give a little bit of a lift for silver. However, as interest rates continue to shoot higher, it makes a certain amount of sense that the US dollar strengthens, and therefore silver struggles as well.
Given enough time, I do think that buyers may come back in on a dip, but we need to see some type of relief. I would not certainly try to be a hero right now, and therefore probably would wait a good week to see a turnaround.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.