Silver (XAG) Forecast: Can Powell Extend the Silver Rally? Key Silver Outlook Explained

Silver Firms as Traders Brace for the Fed

Spot Silver is holding steady on Tuesday, ahead of the December 10 Fed decision, with the market essentially coiling for the next catalyst. Traders have priced in a near-certain 25-bp cut, and that expectation has kept a steady bid under precious metals. When the cost of holding non-yielding assets falls, silver tends to attract interest — and that pattern is showing up again.

At 13:19 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $58.77, up $0.61 or +1.04%.

ETF Inflows Keep Fueling the Upside

One of the strongest supports for the market has been persistent ETF demand. Nearly 590 tonnes flowed into silver ETFs over the past week, while November added 15.7 million ounces — the heaviest monthly intake since July.

That kind of buying isn’t passive allocation; it’s institutional money leaning into the trade. Sustained inflows across nine of the past eleven months tighten available supply and make short exposure harder to carry.

Traders aren’t chasing every uptick, but they’re willing to buy weakness, and the flow backdrop explains why.

Physical Tightness Remains a Core Theme

Supply deficits now stretch into a fifth straight year. Exchange inventories sit at unusually low levels, and Shanghai warehouse stocks are at decade lows. China’s decision to ship refined silver into London underscores how tight the physical market has become. Even if sentiment softens, the structural shortage acts like a cushion under prices and limits the depth of pullbacks.

Dollar Softness Adds Another Tailwind

The dollar index slipping under 100.000 recently has removed some pressure from metals, with dovish expectations for the Fed encouraging dollar sellers. It isn’t the main driver this week, but it supports the broader bid for silver by making the metal more accessible to overseas buyers.

Industrial Appetite Underwrites Medium-Term Strength

Strong demand from solar manufacturing, electric vehicles, and broader green technologies continues to provide a sturdy foundation. Silver’s dual role — investment asset and industrial input — gives traders confidence that the metal has meaningful demand behind it, even if investment flows pause.

Short-Term Outlook: Powell Will Set the Tone

The $56.46–$59.34 range reflects current trading behavior. The expected rate cut is largely baked in, so attention is locked on Chair Powell’s guidance for 2026. A firmer stance on limiting further easing could trigger profit-taking toward support near $56.46. But a more accommodative message may encourage buyers to press through $59.34 and test the path toward $62, a level widely monitored by analysts.

Bottom line: silver is leaning higher, but the follow-through depends on how far Powell opens — or closes — the door to additional cuts next year.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.