Silver (XAG) Forecast: Silver Analysis Points Lower Until Crude Oil or Fed Changes Course

July Silver Futures Take the Hardest Hit of the Week

July Comex silver futures dropped $5.39 or 6.61% for the week ending April 24, closing at $76.19. Steepest loss in the metals complex. Safe-haven demand had nothing to do with it and neither did physical supply. Oil moved and silver absorbed the full damage.

Technical Outlook

The lower-top, lower-bottom formation on the weekly chart puts the market in a downtrend according to the short-term main swing chart. The four-week rally from $61.66 to $83.84 didn’t change the trend, but it did lead to a minor shift in momentum, which is beginning to fade, due to the reaction to 50% level resistance at $79.61.

Longer-term traders are leaning on the 52-week moving average at $58.13 for support and trend guidance. They are the dip-buyers.

Short-term, the stall at $83.84 sets up a potential pullback to $72.75 to $70.13. That’s the near-term value zone that could attract new buyers. The market is giving traders a choice right now, either buy strength through $83.84 (the momentum play), or wait for a pullback into at least $72.75 to $70.13 (the value play).

Why Silver Got Crushed

Crude lit up on Middle East supply risk and I knew immediately what was coming for silver. This chain reaction never changes. Energy costs don’t stay contained. They run through manufacturing, shipping, and consumer prices, and when crude spikes this fast, traders don’t wait for a CPI print. Rate cut positioning got unwound in real time and silver was first in line to take the hit.

10-Year U.S. Treasury yields moved hard. The U.S. Dollar Index followed. Silver carries no yield so when rates climb and the dollar strengthens at the same time, there’s no argument for holding it. Overseas buyers paid more for every ounce and the bids just disappeared.

The industrial angle made it worse. Oil running this hot drives production costs up and transportation costs up, and when both move together, corporate margins feel it fast. That’s a problem for industrial metals demand and traders know it without needing a report to confirm it. Silver absorbed the rate selloff and then absorbed the industrial demand selloff right behind it. Both landed the same week with nothing on the other side to slow them down.

What I’m Watching

The safe-haven bid never materialized and that’s what stood out most. Geopolitical risk was live every day last week and silver couldn’t find a consistent buyer anywhere. Rates and inflation owned this market completely. July Comex silver futures won’t turn until crude drops hard or the Fed changes direction. Neither one is close.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.