Silver (XAG) Forecast: Silver Analysis Targets $41.27+ as Traders Brace for NFP

Silver Holds Above Support as Traders Await NFP Reaction and Fed Cues

Spot silver is holding steady in early Friday trading, consolidating gains after hitting a 14-year high at $41.47 earlier this week. The market remains inside Thursday’s range, signaling temporary indecision as traders brace for volatility tied to the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. With gold fundamentals providing a comparable macro backdrop, silver continues to benefit from a bullish environment supported by falling U.S. yields and Fed rate cut expectations.

At 10:45 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $40.79, up $0.11 or +0.28%.

Can Silver Break Past $41.47 and Push Toward $44.22?

The main uptrend remains intact, and a breakout above the $41.47 high would signal a resumption of bullish momentum. If upside pressure accelerates post-NFP, silver could challenge the next major target at $44.22—the long-term high that marks a critical resistance level on the charts. This zone may trigger profit-taking or bring in fresh buying depending on the macro backdrop, particularly from institutional flows aligned with the broader precious metals rally.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Set the Tone Across Precious Metals

The silver rally continues to mirror strength in gold, which is on track for its best weekly performance in three months. Weaker U.S. labor data and elevated jobless claims have lifted market expectations for a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in September. The dollar’s retreat and a flatter yield curve have underpinned interest in non-yielding assets like silver and gold. Fed officials have expressed concern about labor market fragility, further fueling the bullish outlook for metals.

NFP Report: The Key Catalyst for Silver’s Next Move

The August non-farm payrolls report is expected to show an increase of just 75,000 jobs—barely above July’s figure. A downside surprise would likely confirm dovish Fed expectations, reinforcing dollar weakness and pushing silver higher. However, a stronger-than-expected print could cause a sharp reaction, with silver at risk of testing the short-term pivot at $39.78.

Support Levels to Watch as Volatility Builds

A pullback to $39.78 may invite dip buyers, but a break below this pivot would expose silver to a deeper correction toward the 50-day moving average at $38.20. This level serves as a key trend gauge and may act as a line in the sand for bullish traders watching for longer-term support.

Silver Outlook: Bullish Above $39.78, Cautious Below

As long as silver holds above $39.78, the outlook remains bullish with upside potential toward $44.22. However, traders should prepare for volatility around the NFP release, which will be pivotal in determining whether bulls maintain control or a correction takes hold.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.