Silver (XAG) Forecast: Silver Trades Below 50-Day MA, Eyes 200-Day MA Support

Silver Trades Below Key 50-Day Moving Average After Record High

Like the spot gold market, spot silver appears to be in a consolidation phase with traders probing for the value level that will spark the next rally. Except silver is trading on the weak side of its 50-day moving average, the very indicator that provided support for most of 2025. The very indicator that helped launch the rally to a record high at $121.67 on January 29. Unless spot silver can recapture the 50-day MA, currently at $80.87, look for more downside pressure with a test of the 200-day moving average at $51.86 a strong possibility over the near-term.

The Two Moving Averages That Moved in Lockstep Are Now $29 Apart

Throughout 2025, the 50-day MA and 200-day MA moved higher in lockstep fashion. They even traded at precisely the same level nearly a year before the record high was reached. Now I’m not saying they have to converge again before the next major rally begins, but certainly, it’s not unreasonable to expect the spread between the two moving averages to narrow quite a bit. Currently, it’s at about $29.00 and if my calculations are right, it’s still widening. This is because we’re still inside the 50-day window of the rapid move to the top. April 10 will be 50 days from the record high and that will be the day the moving average starts moving lower.

Traders Are Hunting for Value, Not Chasing Offers

My charts suggest that traders are no longer chasing silver, or hitting offers. Like gold, they are hunting for value. Having rejected the 50-day moving average as value, traders are now rotating their focus to the 200-day moving average. My conclusion is that silver could be in a prolonged “digestion” period, where it needs to work off the excess caused by the parabolic, “too much, too fast” rally in January.

April 10 Is When the Technical Picture Finally Reflects Reality

I believe this has to take place because we need to see the market reflect the true value of silver without being skewed by that January price spike. The thing is, we have nearly a month-and-a-half of consolidation to go through before this occurs.

Two Scenarios to Watch: Geopolitical Spike or Grind to Deep Value

The challenge for traders is regain the 50-day moving average, form a support base then wait for a catalyst to drive it higher. Perhaps a major geopolitical event out of the Middle East fuels this scenario. Silver could follow gold if this occurs, but buying could be limited because silver is primarily an industrial metal, not a safe-haven.

On the other hand, the second scenario involves traders selling rallies and price spikes while playing for a major break into a deep value area around the 200-day moving average. It’s still going to have to consolidate and it’s still going to need a catalyst to move higher. However, maybe by then we’ll know more about the timing of the next Fed rate cut, which could come as early as June. Lower interest rates could be the catalyst this market needs to rally. By then, the digestion process will be complete and silver will be ready to absorb new demand.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.