Silver (XAG) Forecast: Traders Eye $33.70 Breakout in Volatile Silver Market

Silver Holds Above Support as Fed, PCE Data Keep Traders on Edge

Silver prices are holding just above key technical support at $32.70, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of critical U.S. macroeconomic data. While modestly lower in Wednesday trading, the metal’s resilience is underpinned by broader positioning in precious metals, particularly gold, as traders await fresh cues from the Federal Reserve and inflation figures.

At 12:44 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $33.22, down $0.05 or -0.14%.

Fed Minutes and PCE in Focus: Will Rates Stay Higher for Longer?

Traders are watching for clarity from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting minutes and Friday’s release of the PCE inflation index—both potential catalysts for renewed market movement.

The Fed has maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% since December, with officials including New York Fed President John Williams highlighting the need for a strong policy stance should inflation reaccelerate.

Higher-for-longer rate expectations, combined with rising Treasury yields—such as the 10-year hitting 4.473%—have pressured non-yielding assets like gold and silver, reducing speculative appetite in the near term.

Gold’s Performance Signals Investor Hesitation Across Metals

Gold’s bounce off support at $3277.91 shows continued investor interest on dips, but its inability to break through $3310.48 signals indecision. The yellow metal’s technical stalemate is setting the tone for silver, which remains in a holding pattern pending macroeconomic clarity. The muted physical gold demand from India and China, and changes in U.S.–Swiss gold flows due to easing tariff concerns, further point to a fragile precious metals market foundation.

Silver’s Technical Setup: $33.70 Break Would Confirm Bulls

Silver’s chart shows a tight range forming above the 50-day moving average at $32.70. A clean breakout above $33.70 would confirm renewed buying momentum and could propel prices toward the resistance zone between $34.59 and $34.87. On the downside, failure to hold the 50-day could drag prices swiftly toward the 200-day moving average at $31.52, marking a broader sentiment shift.

Short-Term Outlook: Wait for the Data, Then Follow the Break

Silver’s near-term direction hinges on upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed language. A dovish Fed tone or soft PCE reading could reignite bids in both gold and silver, with $33.70 acting as the technical trigger for silver bulls. Until then, the market is likely to remain in consolidation, with traders reducing exposure and focusing on headline risk. Watch for volatility spikes tied to macro releases—these will determine whether silver resumes its climb or corrects deeper.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.