Solana Price Prediction: What the Future Holds After 22% Monthly Decline?

Solana (SOL) has lost 22% of its value in the past 30 days and currently sits at $187 per token as the crypto market was spooked by President Donald Trump’s decision to slap China with a 100% increase in tariffs overnight.

Market sentiment has soured as a result, and altcoin season has been officially derailed, at least temporarily, and SOL as unable to make a new all-time high even though its peers, BNB and ETH, managed to achieve this feat.

The Fear and Greed Index shows that sentiment shifted from a high of 62 (Greed) to 33 (Fear) as of today, primarily as a result of Trump’s actions.

Analysts Still Believe that The Fed Will Cut Rates

The market is waiting for this week’s inflation report in the United States to see if they can find some degree of assurance in it about what the Federal Reserve’s actions will be next week.

FedWatch Next FOMC Meeting Probabilities – Source: CME Group

The consensus is that the U.S. central bank will lower rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting. However, Trump’s actions could prompt the institution to revisit that approach if they opt to wait another month to do so or scrap that plan altogether.

The risk that Trump’s higher tariffs will result in higher inflation down the road is real, and could deter the Fed from making any further monetary policy adjustments.

This is bad news for risky assets, which includes Solana (SOL), as the market’s baseline scenario was that lower rates would push the price of altcoins higher down the road. Data from FedWatch shows that 99% of analysts still believe that this rate cut will be implemented, regardless of what Trump did.

Solana Bounced Off $175 and Momentum Is Picking Up Its Pace

The daily chart shows that Solana has bounced off a trend line support that coincides with a key area that acted as both support and resistance in the past at $175.

SOL/USD Daily Chart (Binance) – Source: TradingView

Trading volumes initially surpassed the average after this first bounce, but have been lower now that the asset retested that same area a couple of days ago. This increases the odds of a much stronger pullback as buying interest seems to be fading.

For now, as long as the price stays above this key level, the odds favor a bullish outlook for SOL that could once again push the token to $200 in the near term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems poised to rise above the 14-day moving average, which is typically interpreted as a buy signal.

If altcoins continue to recover in the next few weeks, Solana should play catch-up with BNB Coin and Ethereum to reach a new all-time high. On-chain data shows that ecosystem growth has stalled lately, which is an important factor to consider and the one that probably explains why it has not yet reached $300 during this cycle.

Nonetheless, market conditions remain favorable for now, and, as long as the Fed comes through with the expected rate cut this month, this recent scare should turn out to be a good buying opportunity instead of a trend reversal, which is what most of the market seems to be thinking.