Soybeans Surge While Wheat Prices Slump

Grain prices are mixed in early Friday trade. While soy bean prices are poised to break out, wheat prices are trading on the defensive. The colder weather that buoyed wheat last weekend, has now subsided allowing prices to return back to earth.

Corn Prices

Weekly corn export sales for the 2017/18 marketing season of 839.9 TMT, slipped 7% from last week and were 46% below the prior 4-week average.  New crop sales came in as at 56 TMT, lifting combined sales to 895.9 TMT.  Total sales were within analyst expectations that ranged from 800 to 1,350 TMT. Increases were reported for Vietnam, Mexico, and Japan. 2017/18 export commitments are 85% of the USDA forecast and need to average 396 TMT per week to meet projections. Export sales trail last year’s pace by 2%.

Corn prices are nearly unchanged for both the day and the week.  Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 387. Target resistance is seen near the April highs at 3.92, and then the January highs at 394. Momentum is neutral to negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing near the zero index level with a flat trajectory which points to consolidation.

Soybean Prices

Soybean export sales for the 2017/18 marketing year came in at 1,510.5 TMT, up 33% from last week  and 74% more than the prior 4-week average.  Sales for the 2018/19 crop year totaled 954 TMT, lifting combined sales to 2,464.5 TMT.  Combined sales were up 65% week over week and exceeded analyst estimates that ranged from 800-1,700 TMT. 2017/18 export commitments are 94% of the USDA forecast with 21 weeks to go and need to average 153 TMT weekly to meet projections. Current sales are 4.5% behind last year’s pace. Major purchases were reported for Egypt, China, and Mexico.

Soybean prices moved higher and are poised to test higher levels.  Resistance is seen near a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 1070.  Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1042. Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Wheat Prices

Wheat prices moved lower on Thursday and continued to decline early on Friday dropping 1.5%. Prices are forming a bull flag continuation pattern and bumping up next to resistance near a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 498. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 472 and then the March lows at 441. Momentum is positive to neutral as the MACD recently generated a buy signal but the trajectory of the MACD histogram is pointing downward reflecting consolidation.