E-mini S&P 500 Futures Edge Higher on Crude Oil Retreat
March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are edging higher on Tuesday, showing a slight follow-through to the upside after yesterday’s dramatic reversal bottom. The short-term range is 6983.75 to 6584.50. The market is currently testing its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 6784.25 to 6831.25. Trader reaction to this zone will set the tone into the close.
Key Retracement Levels That Will Determine the Near-Term Direction
A sustained move over the Fibonacci level at 6831.25 will signal the buying is getting stronger and could create the momentum needed to challenge the 50-day moving average at 6923.25.
If the 50% level at 6784.25 fails to hold as support, the index could collapse into the support cluster at 6696.25 to 6686.50, created by a 50% level and the 200-day moving average, respectively.
Crude Oil Is the Catalyst — Here’s What Traders Are Watching
We’re in a headline driven market so traders can hold the market inside the range until the next catalyst hits, which will probably be crude oil related. April WTI crude oil is likely to be the catalyst. A sustained move over $87.18 could exert a bearish influence on stocks and a sustained break under $79.55 is likely to be bullish for the stock market.
Cash Market Levels — S&P 500 in Focus
In the cash market, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is testing a key 50% level at 6819.16. Overcoming this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger for a surge into the 61.8% level at 6862.38. This is the last potential resistance before the 50-day moving average at 6898.04.
S&P 500 Price Forecast
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See all S&P 500 forecastsOn the downside, the major support zone comes in at 6762.10 to 6705.42. Under this area is the 200-day MA at 6591.17.
Nasdaq-100 Index Futures Positioned to Challege 50-day MA
March E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are attempting to breakout over a trend line at 24954.75. A sustained move over this level will put the index on course for a test of the 50-day moving average at 25376.42.
Overtaking the 50-day MA and the swing top at 25494.75 will change the main trend to up and could trigger an acceleration to the upside.
Stocks Forecast — Crude Oil Under $100 Is the Game-Changing Level
The major indices are all trading higher as we head into the mid-session. It looks like buyers have returned with the break in crude oil. Talk of the war ending and the release of oil stockpiles are lifting prices higher. We think the volatility has subsided, but it’s likely to remain elevated. Investors are returning cautiously, but as oil retreats, they’ll continue to gain confidence. The key for bullish traders is crude oil under $100 a barrel. This level is the game-changing level.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.