S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 E-mini Testing a Major Trend Line

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 02.12.22

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 E-mini contract has been rather choppy during the trading session on Thursday after the PCE numbers came out at 0.3% month over month. At this point, the market is still likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, as we are testing the major downtrend line that we have been falling for a while.

Furthermore, you need to keep in mind that the jobs number comes out on Friday, so that will be something that obviously has an influence on this market and therefore could cause a lot of volatility as well. Pullbacks at this point in time make a certain amount of sense, but we could also get a massive breakout if that number is somewhat underwhelming.

The 200-Day EMA sits at the 4024 level, and now should offer dynamic support. If we were to break down below there, then I think it’s very likely we go down to the 3950 level. Keep in mind that we could be seeing the beginning of the “Santa Claus rally” which happens at the end of the year when money managers try to market their books to atone for mistakes all year. Whether or not that’s going to actually come to fruition is still open for interpretation, because it does not have to happen.

Jerome Powell had a lot to do with what happened yesterday, as his speech was balanced, which of course Wall Street took as extraordinarily dovish. We’ve seen this happen before, and typically what will happen is that US stocks will rally for a short time, and then pulled back again.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.