Now that the Americans are back from the extended weekend, we can see what they actually think about the stock market. I warned that the Monday candlestick was probably a bit misleading in the futures market, and now you see why.
The S&P 500 has pulled back rather significantly from the 50 Day EMA, an area that tends to attract quite a bit of attention, so it should not be a huge surprise to see that we have failed. Ultimately, I think the market will see this as an opportunity to get rid of bad positions, and if we break down below the 4100 level on a daily close, I think that will continue the overall malaise and negativity that we have seen for so long.
On the other hand, if we were to break above the highs of the day, that would be a bullish sign, but we still have to contest the 4300 level, an area that has been crucial previously. Breaking above there would be a very bullish move indeed, but not one that I think would be very easy to do. As long as we continue to have concerns with the overall global economy and central bank tightening, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the S&P 500 suddenly takes off.
With that, I think the market probably continues to see a lot of volatility, but every time we get one of these massive bear market rallies, it’s time to start selling again. The market has been extraordinarily negative for quite some time, so the fact that we had this massive jump should not be a huge surprise, but it tends to be a great opportunity to get rid of long positions for those who were trapped. Ultimately, this looks like a market that will eventually try to get back to the lows.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.