The S&P 500 rallied during the day on Thursday into the 50 day EMA before pulling back just slightly. That being the case, the Good Friday session of course was closed so the Monday opening will be solely a reaction to headlines over the weekend.
The S&P 500 pulled back initially during the trading session on Thursday but then turned around to rally towards the 50 day EMA. Furthermore, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level is hanging around in the same area, which is extensively the 2800 level. I think at this point the market could pull back, but we need some type of news catalyst to either make the market go higher or lower. Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve adding $2 trillion in loans for stimulus to the economy has Wall Street excited. However, one has to wonder whether or not people are going to be concerned that they did that, because it is such a desperate move.
Looking at the candlestick, if we can break above the top of that I think that the S&P 500 will probably go higher to look towards the 2950 level which is not only the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, but it is also the scene of a gap that hasn’t been filled. That is my base case scenario, but if we were to turn around a break down below the lows of the session on Thursday, then it means that we probably get the significant pullback that so many traders are looking for. At this point, the next couple of trading sessions will be crucial, so certainly need to pay attention to which side of the candlestick that the market breaks on Monday. One thing is for sure, the market is going to remain volatile.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.