S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Recover

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 01.11.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 initially dropped a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, but it looks like the traders are out there trying to push things back to the upside. We are at the end of the month, so there’s the usual “end of the month markup” that could happen when money managers step into the market and buy all of the stocks that they should have owned the entire time. Furthermore, those who have been short of the market will probably be booking gains, and therefore a short-term bounce does make a certain amount of sense. That being said, I still think there’s a lot of downward pressure out there, and we are in the midst of the Q3 earnings, and therefore you will continue to see the market get knocked around by this.

A short-term rally toward the 200-Day EMA could be a potential move, but signs of exhaustion will more likely than not be jumped on by short-sellers, as the market will continue to be very noisy in general. If we break down below the lows of the Tuesday session, then we could threaten the bottom again, perhaps opening up a move down to the 4000 level. We are at the bottom of a descending channel, so we are a little overdone at this point. I think ultimately this is a market that not only has to worry about earnings, but also has to worry about higher interest rates, and of course a lot of geopolitical concerns.

Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy, but regardless, we have a lot of things out there to worry about right now, but the confluence of the bottom of the channel, the 4100 level, and of course the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level might be a bit too much for the sellers to overcome in the short term. Ultimately, this is a market that I think given enough time will have a lot to disseminate, and therefore the volatility is probably only going to be worse. Ultimately, I am bearish at this market and it is probably worth noting that the 50-Day EMA is rapidly approaching the 200-Day EMA, and could kick off a “death cross” given enough time.

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