S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Get a Boost as Banking Crisis Eases
US Stock Market Forecast Video for 28.03.23
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 got a little bit of a boost as First Republic is in the process of being purchased, and therefore it’s likely that traders believe that the banking situation has stabilized itself. Whether or not that’s true remains to be seen, so I would not get overly excited at this point in time. The market seems to be comfortable hanging around the 200-Day EMA, which is presently hanging just above the 4000 level, an area that is psychologically and structurally important. However, we have sliced through that level multiple times and therefore it’s likely it is losing a lot of its structural resistance, but still could act as a bit of a magnet for price.
It’s worth noting that the 4100 level above has been significant resistance, and therefore it could be a bit of a ceiling in the market. If we were to break above there, then the market could go looking to the 4200 level, which was also resistance recently. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick on Friday, it looks as if we could go looking to the 3900 level, perhaps down to the 3800 level. At this juncture, I think we continue to see a lot of noise in this market, and therefore you need to be very cautious with putting a lot of money into it, unless you are willing to trade a short-term range bound type of trading system.
Whether or not we get any clarity remains to be seen, but I think at this juncture you simply have to wait for the market to make up its mind before putting big positions on. Short-term small positions might make a lot of sense, as long as you’re comfortable trading in that environment, recognizing that profits will probably have to be taken rather quickly, and “letting your winners run” is going to be very difficult in this environment. Furthermore, if you were to see a position go against you, you need to get out of it quickly as well. Some type of impulsive candlestick could give a signal that we could go higher or lower, but in the meantime, it looks like we continue to seek choppiness more than anything else.
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