The S&P 500 rallied during the day on Wednesday, as all stock indices did in the United States as the market reacted positively to the Americans backing down from the idea of preventing Chinese from investing in tech companies in America. This would have been a massive ratcheting up of the trade war, and that of course has people getting involved in this relief rally.
The S&P 500 initially fell during the trading session on Wednesday but found enough support just above the 2700 level to turn around and rally significantly. I believe that the 2700 level continues to be very important, and it should continue to offer a bit of a “floor” for the market right now. We have made a “higher high”, which is a very bullish sign. I think that the market continues to be very noisy, but if we can get some type of calming down of trade tensions, it’s likely that we could continue to go much higher.
The alternate scenario of course is that we break down below the 2700 level, which would signify a new leg lower, and it fresh bearishness. On the hourly chart, it looks as if we are trying to form a “W pattern”, which of course is a very bullish sign. I am cautiously optimistic at the moment, but I also recognize that you should be very small with your trading positions. After the reaction during the day on Wednesday though, I do believe that the buyers are simply waiting for an excuse to get involved. Look at dips as value if we can stay above the 2700 level, but if we get below there, it may be time to start getting aggressively short of the market as it will almost undoubtedly break down significantly from there.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.