S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: Strong Week for US Stocks as Investors Position for PCE Data

S&P 500 Extends Weekly Advance as Traders Position for Key Inflation Data

The S&P 500 pushed higher Friday, rising 0.19% and nearing record territory as the index tracked toward a fourth consecutive gain. The Nasdaq added 0.16% and the Dow gained 172 points, with traders focused squarely on incoming inflation data that will frame the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision.

The session opened steady as investors prepared for a dense economic slate. September PCE — delayed by the government shutdown — will offer the Fed a final read on inflation before Wednesday’s vote. The release accompanies fresh consumer spending and income data, along with the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey, giving markets multiple catalysts heading into the weekend.

How Are Traders Interpreting the Latest Labor Signals?

Jobless claims reached their lowest level since September 2022, but Challenger’s report showed layoffs exceeding 1 million year-to-date, driven by restructuring, artificial intelligence adoption, and tariff-related adjustments. The mixed tone has not altered market expectations: traders still assign an 87% probability to a quarter-point rate cut next week, according to CME FedWatch. The current fed funds range remains 3.75%–4%, with short-term funding pressures in focus.

Which Indexes and Sectors Are Setting the Tone?

Weekly performance remained constructive, with the S&P 500 up 0.4%, the Nasdaq up 1%, and the Dow up 0.5%. Small-caps outperformed broadly, with the Russell 2000 advancing more than 1%. Sector activity leaned positive: communication services led with a 0.91% gain, while energy, consumer discretionary, materials, financials, industrials, technology, and health care all posted modest advances. Utilities slipped slightly.

What Are the Key Corporate Drivers?

Corporate headlines added further texture. Netflix fell 2% after announcing a $72 billion deal to buy film and streaming assets from Warner Bros. Discovery, while WBD gained 2%.

Earnings strength boosted several names: Rubrik surged nearly 19% after beating revenue and profit expectations; Cooper Companies jumped more than 13% on strong results and improved guidance; and Ulta Beauty climbed 6% after raising its full-year outlook.

Conversely, SoFi dropped 7% following a $1.5 billion equity offering, while Docusign slipped 5% despite exceeding consensus forecasts.

How Are Traders Approaching the Fed Decision?

Investor focus remains fixed on inflation inputs and labor-market tone. Meta’s 3.4% rise and Nvidia’s 2.1% gain in the prior session helped reinforce momentum in growth stocks, but traders remain sensitive to any indication that inflation progress is slowing.

Market Forecast

Short-term bias leans bullish heading into the PCE release and the Fed decision. Traders expect supportive signals, though any indication of persistent inflation could temper upside enthusiasm.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.