S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: US Stocks Stall as Fed Rumors Cloud Market Forecast Today

Midday Drift: S&P 500 Stalls as Waller Rumors Rattle Fed Confidence

Markets got off to a decent start this morning, but we’ve given a chunk of that back now. S&P 500 futures are stuck near unchanged—hovering just under 6,363—with price action now circling a key intraday pivot at 6,354. That level’s become the control point, and quite frankly, the market doesn’t seem eager to break above it decisively… at least not with fresh political noise creeping in.

Waller as Trump’s Fed Pick? Market Isn’t Thrilled

The Bloomberg headline suggesting Christopher Waller might be Trump’s top choice for Fed chair if he retakes the White House was enough to cool off early optimism. It’s not so much about Waller himself—he’s not exactly a wildcard—but more about the idea of Trump reshaping the Fed again. That’s reopening the old debate about central bank independence, and that uncertainty is acting like a wet blanket on risk sentiment.

What’s keeping the Nasdaq afloat?

Tech’s still got some juice. Apple is leading the charge again, tacking on another 2.2% after Trump praised the company’s $100 billion U.S. investment pledge. That’s giving the Nasdaq a solid intraday lift—currently up around 0.4%. Chipmakers are also running thanks to Trump’s tariff carve-outs for U.S.-based production. AMD’s up more than 5%, while Nvidia and Broadcom are both riding 2%+ gains. Traders are clearly chasing names that’ll sidestep the 100% chip import duties.

Who’s dragging the tape lower?

Healthcare’s a problem. Eli Lilly’s collapse—down over 14%—has single-handedly pulled the sector into the red. The street’s not happy with their weight-loss drug update, and no one seems to care that they raised guidance. That’s what happens when expectations get ahead of the data. The broader healthcare space is off 1.6% as a result, easily the worst-performing sector on the board.

What’s the next move for the S&P 500?

Right now, 6,381 is the ceiling. We’ve tested it, and sellers keep showing up. Below that, 6,354 looks like a soft intraday floor. If we stay in this chop zone, it’ll feel like consolidation—but a break either way could give us the next directional cue.

And with jobless claims topping estimates again—226k vs. 221k—rate cut bets are only getting firmer. The September cut is almost fully priced in, and traders are now leaning toward two cuts before year-end.

Into the close…

Watch for more headlines from Trump’s team on Fed picks or tariffs. This market’s jumpy when it comes to politics and monetary policy, and the fact that 6,354 is holding as resistance tells me bulls aren’t fully in control right now. Buyers are still poking around dips, but if we can’t reclaim that level into the final hour, this might end up as a flat-to-soft close.

We’ll see how that plays out.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.