S&P500 Forecast: Amazon, Meta Gain as Soft Jobs Data Lifts US Stocks Today

Wall Street Holds Higher Midday as Labor Data Supports Rate Cut Bets; Salesforce Weighs on Dow

U.S. stocks advanced modestly midway through Thursday’s session, lifted by signs of easing labor conditions that reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hovered in positive territory, while a sharp decline in Salesforce shares dragged the Dow into the red.

Is Labor Data Enough to Justify a Rate Cut?

Private payrolls rose less than expected in August, and weekly jobless claims came in higher than forecast—both pointing to cooling labor market conditions. These numbers follow July’s soft payrolls data, a weak job openings report, and dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Traders continue to price in a 95% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Investors are now squarely focused on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. “I’m hoping there would be a Goldilocks number,” said Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management, “where we’re not creating jobs like we were, but we’re also not falling off the cliff.”

How Is Salesforce Impacting Index Performance?

Salesforce fell 5.5% after forecasting third-quarter revenue below Wall Street expectations. The company’s update suggested lagging monetization of its AI agent platform, hitting sentiment across the broader software space. Its decline was a key drag on the Dow, limiting broader market upside.

Can Amazon and Meta Keep Tech Afloat?

Amazon climbed 3.3% and Meta gained 1.8%, providing support for the Nasdaq and lifting the consumer discretionary and communication services sectors. Amazon shares were boosted by bullish sentiment surrounding its partnership with Anthropic, the AI startup that just closed a $13 billion funding round. Analysts see Amazon’s infrastructure playing a central role in training Claude 5, potentially adding significantly to AWS growth.

Barclays said AWS may currently be gaining just 100 basis points of growth from Anthropic, but that could ramp up to 400bps per quarter once Claude 5 training and inference workloads are fully in play.

What’s the Market Focus into the Close?

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose on Wednesday, boosted by Alphabet after a judge ruled it wouldn’t need to sell its Chrome browser. Alphabet shares, however, were down 1.2% in Thursday trade. Sector breadth was favorable: advancing issues led decliners by a 2.01-to-1 margin on the NYSE and were flat on the Nasdaq. The S&P recorded 12 new 52-week highs and six new lows; the Nasdaq saw 54 new highs and 114 new lows.

With Treasury yields stabilizing and labor data softening, traders are positioning for a dovish tilt—contingent on Friday’s payrolls confirming the trend.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.