S&P500: Intel Surge Lifts US Stocks as Oil Dip Boosts Market Forecast

S&P 500 Futures Edge Higher as Iran Talk Hopes and Intel Lift the Tape

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are pushing higher Friday morning and two things are driving it. Intel soared 24% in premarket after a blowout earnings report and word out of Pakistan suggests U.S. and Iran negotiations may be back on. That combination gave buyers a reason to show up after a week that was shaping up as a losing one for the major averages. Keep reading for the key levels and what traders need to watch into the close.

Technical Outlook

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are edging higher shortly before the cash market opening on Friday. The overnight trade has been volatile, producing two-sided trading action.

At 13:04 GMT, it’s trading $7158.00, up $14.50 or +0.20%.

The index hit a record high at 7189.50 early in the session. Traders are going to have to take out this level to resume the uptrend. From the top down, the key levels to watch today are Thursday’s close at 7143.50, last week’s close at 7161.50 and the minor swing bottom at 7079.25.

A close below 7161.50 will produce a weekly closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 week correction. Finishing below 7143.50 will form a daily closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction. But the combination of the daily and weekly reversal could send a strong signal that momentum is shifting lower.

A trade through 7079.25 will change the minor trend to down and confirm the shift in momentum. This could lead to a steep break into the short-term retracement zone at 7079.25.

Longer-term targets are the 50-day moving average at 6833.36, the 200-day moving average at 6826.00 and the retracement zone at 6771.50 to 6672.75.

Iran Talk Hopes Take Some Heat Off the Market

A Pakistani government official told reporters that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is expected in Islamabad Friday evening and that U.S.-Iran negotiations are likely to follow. Oil pulled back on the news and futures pushed higher. That’s the trade in one sentence. Any credible signal that talks are resuming takes risk premium out of energy prices and gives equities room to breathe.

Trump also announced Thursday that Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their ceasefire by three weeks. The Strait of Hormuz situation remains active with both the U.S. and Iran seizing commercial ships this week. The Middle East is still capable of moving this market on any headline and Friday proved it again.

Intel and Semis Carry the Week

Intel jumped 24% in premarket after beating earnings estimates and issuing strong guidance. That’s the kind of move that pulls the whole semiconductor space higher and the sector needed it. The iShares Semiconductor ETF posted its 17th straight positive session Thursday and is on pace for a 6% weekly gain. The rally in chips is the one thing holding this market together right now. Everything else is flat to lower on the week with the S&P 500 and Dow both down about 0.3% and the Nasdaq off 0.1%.

What to Watch Into the Close

The weekly close is the number that matters most today. A finish below 7161.50 puts a weekly closing price reversal top on the chart and that’s a signal traders around the world will notice over the weekend. Intel and the Iran talk headlines bought the bulls some time Friday morning. Whether that holds into the close decides how next week sets up.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.