Stocks’ Rally Produces an Undefeated Buy Signal

Using the exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) as a proxy, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 31% since its bottom in April. That 31% figure is important because it signals bullishness ahead.

Undefeated Buy Signal

At my company MoneyFlows, we’ve long thought the market’s action in 2025 nearly mirrored what happened in 2020 during the COVID pandemic.

In 2020, forced selling based on panic caused an immense buying opportunity. We told anyone who would listen to buy. Once markets rose soon after, those who bravely bought were rewarded:

We’re seeing the same pattern this year and the message hasn’t changed. In April we again said to buy. Those who did won again:

From April 8 until mid-September, the S&P 500 gained 31%:

That’s the best five-month performance since COVID. Now I’m going to tell you why that matters so much.

Stocks Have Never Gone Lower

Going back to 1984, the S&P 500 has gained 30% or more in 106 trading days only 39 times. Those instances almost always have involved a forced selling event and stocks rising higher afterwards.

Here’s the important part: after these occurrences, stocks have never gone lower.

Let that sink in. If history repeats as it has 100% of the time since 1984, stocks will never be lower than the levels to where they have recently ascended.

In truth, while nothing is guaranteed, we should probably expect impressive six- and 12-month gains in the future to push stocks up even higher.

What does that mean for investors? It means the time to find and own high quality stocks is now.

One example of a high performer that’s shining in MoneyFlows data is Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX):

Note how powerful the MAP Score is for STX, ranking at 86.2. Additionally, it offers impressive fundamentals and technical momentum:

• 3-year EPS growth rate (+28.3%)
• Profit margin (+9.6%)
• Forward price-earnings ratio of 19.5 times earnings
• Gained 36.5% in a month
• Gained 151% this year
• Gained 2,520% since first Big Money outlier inflow signal (January 2005)

Sources: FactSet, MoneyFlows

It’s soared recently on Big Money accumulation. It’s soared over time on Big Money accumulation. And now, it could have even more room to run.

Outperformers Are Outliers

On a macro level, stocks are poised to go higher, based on history.

On a micro level, some stocks will outperform the indices, and they’ll be the ones with growing fundamentals and Big Money support.

These outperformers are outliers. They’re the stocks that drive portfolios to new heights, and MoneyFlows can find them.

If you are a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) or a serious investor, take your investing to the next level and follow our free weekly MoneyFlows insights.

Disclosure: the author holds no position in STX at the time of publication.