Technical Analysis EUR/USD for 7/2/15

The EUR/USD moved lower on Wednesday, as broader dollar strength increased following stronger than expected jobs, manufacturing and construction data that were released in the AM. Prices attempted to move higher on news that Greece had accepted most of the EU’s demands for an agreements, but as it became clear that the country would move forward with a referendum Sunday, the exchange rate sold off.

The EUR/USD tested support at an upward sloping trend line near 1.050, and was able to bounce slightly. Resistance was tested early in the trading session near the 5-day moving average at 1.1155.  With the 5-day moving average recently crossing below the 20-day moving average a short-term down trend could be considered in place.

Momentum on the EUR/USD currency pair remains negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is printing in negative territory with a downward sloping trajectory.  The MACD generated a sell signal last week which points to a lower exchange rate.

On Thursday the U.S. Labor Department will release its monthly employment report which should be a market mover.  Expectations are for an increase of 230K jobs, and anything stronger could push the EUR/USD through support levels, testing the May lows at 1.08.