Technical Analysis EUR/USD for 7/4/15

The EUR/USD edged higher on Thursday following a softer than expected U.S. employment report.  The Non-farm payroll report released by the Department of Labor came a day early due to the U.S. Independence day holiday on Friday.  According to the BLS NFP increased by 223k in June compared to expectations of a rise of 230K.  The employment rate dipped to 5.3%, but it was mainly because of a drop in the participation from to 38 year lows.  The main concern was a revision to the prior two months of approximate 60K jobs.

The EUR/USD is poised to close below trend line support that connect the weekly lows in August 2014 to the lows in February and comes in at 1.2960.  The next level of target support on a weekly basis is seen near 1.2680.  Resistance is seen at former support at 1.2960.

Momentum has turned negative as the weekly MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index continued to move further into negative territory.  The downward sloping trajectory of the MACD histogram points to lower future prices.  The MACD generated a sell signal in May of 2015.