The Calm Before the Next Move? Metals at Critical Decision Points

Across the dollar and the precious metals, several markets are pressing directly against major support and resistance zones, but none of them has delivered a decisive breakout… just yet. And that makes today’s daily close especially important.

U.S. Dollar Index (DX.F)

The first thing that jumps off the daily chart is Friday’s fresh bearish engulfing pattern. That’s an important development because it adds even more weight to an already strong resistance zone built around last Wednesday’s bearish gap and the upper boundary of the orange consolidation.

Today’s Asian session began with a small bullish gap between 97.82 and 97.87. That gap gave bulls a reason to fight back after several failed attempts by bears to break through the key support zone.

And for a moment, it worked. The dollar climbed back above the 98 level, but the road higher is still far from clear.

Last week’s bearish gap between 98.20 and 98.31 remains active, and the bearish island reversal is still hanging over the chart like a ceiling. Together, these technical obstacles continue to block the path north.

That’s why, in our view, bulls still have one major job to do. They need to break out of the orange consolidation, close the day above 98.31, and neutralize the bearish setup overhead.

If they can pull that off, the door opens for a move toward the next major resistance zone between 98.75 and 99.68. Until that happens, the picture remains mixed and this is one of those situations where patience is likely to be more valuable than prediction.

Silver (SI.F)

Let’s start this section with the May 7 quote:

“(…) If bulls manage to finish the day above 8000 and successfully close that gap, they’ll have a strong technical argument for another push higher toward the lower boundary of the former channel. 

(…) If buyers manage to reclaim that structure and break through the resistance cluster, the next target could come into play pretty quickly: the March 11 gap between 8850 and 8959. (…)”

From today’s perspective, we see that silver has followed the bullish script almost perfectly.

Yesterday, bulls closed the day not only above the April 20 and March 13 gap zones, but also above the previously broken lower boundary of the green rising channel. That move invalidated the earlier breakdown below the channel, which is a very positive technical signal.

That show of strength led to a higher open in Asia, and the newly created bullish gap encouraged another upswing toward the final resistance zone before the psychologically important 9000 level.

As the chart shows, however, a combination of two Fibonacci retracements and the lower edge of the March 11 gap (8850-8959) slowed the rally and triggered a pullback, which brought the price back to the previously reclaimed lower boundary of the rising channel.

But for now, the bigger picture remains constructive.

In our opinion, as long as we do not see a daily close below that support line – and specifically below 8526 – buyers still have a solid chance of launching another attack on the nearby resistance zone.

What would invalidate this bullish scenario?

A daily close below 8526. If that happens, the first downside target for bears would likely be the 8000-8120 area.

Today’s Takeaway & Key Levels to Watch

For Dollar:

• Watch the 98.20-98.31 bearish gap together with the island reversal overhead
• Daily close above 98.31 will likely open room toward 98.75-99.68
• Failure to break above resistance -> keeps the dollar stuck in consolidation
• Continued weakness in the dollar could remain supportive for metals

For Silver:

• Watch the reclaimed lower boundary of the green rising channel (key support)
• Resistance sits in the 8850-8959 zone
• Successful breakout -> could pave the way toward the 9000 barrier
• Daily close below 8526 -> opens downside risk toward 8000-8120
• Silver continues to look like one of the strongest charts in the group.

Respect the levels, avoid the noise, and let the market come to you.
Anna