The Day Ahead: China Trade Truce Lifts Markets Today Ahead of U.S. Open

MARKET OVERVIEW

U.S. equity futures are sharply higher Monday after a surprise breakthrough in U.S.–China trade talks. The S&P 500 futures surged 2.82%, Nasdaq-100 climbed 3.62%, and Dow futures jumped 2.23% after both nations agreed to slash reciprocal tariffs by 115 percentage points for 90 days.

This surprise détente follows negotiations in Switzerland and was confirmed in a press conference by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Markets reacted positively, pricing in the pause as a bullish catalyst for global trade exposure.

Trade-sensitive tech stocks are leading gains in premarket action on the Tradegate Exchange: Tesla is up 8%, Amazon +7%, Apple +5%, Nvidia +5%, and Nike +7%.

Technically, S&P 500 futures have cleared the 50-day (5,587.4) and is rapidly approaching the 200-day (5,872.9) SMAs. The market has also exceeded the March swing high at 5,837. A close above both SMAs may open a path toward the 6,236.50 resistance zone.

Nasdaq futures broke above their 200-day SMA at 20,680.78, reclaiming a key level. The trend now favors upside momentum continuation.

Dow futures are testing overhead resistance at 42,492, just below the 200-day SMA at 43,036. Holding above 41,267.30 (50-day SMA) keeps bulls in control.

KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES

• 10:25 GMT – Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaks. Markets may watch for any shift in inflation tone or hints ahead of Tuesday’s CPI release.
• 14:00 GMT – U.S. April federal budget statement due. Could influence fiscal sentiment but is secondary to CPI this week.

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Before the Open:

• NRG Energy (NRG) expected to report $1.75 EPS – a beat could support utilities sector momentum.
• Fox Corp (FOXA) estimated at $0.91 EPS – closely watched for ad trends.
• Monday.com (MNDY) expected at $0.70 EPS – high-growth SaaS name with strong beta to tech sector moves.

After the Close:

• DaVita (DVA) projected $1.95 EPS – consistent performer, any surprise could swing sentiment in health care.
• Simon Property Group (SPG) expected to post $2.91 EPS – a key REIT; mall and retail trends under scrutiny.
• Vital Energy (VTLE) set for $2.19 EPS – energy names sensitive to broader market risk-on rotation.

COMMODITIES, CRYPTO, AND BONDS

Gold is under pressure, down 3.52% to $3,226.90, as traders rotate out of defensive assets amid risk-on sentiment post-trade news. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.447% (+6.5 bps), confirming a pivot away from safety into equities.

OUTLOOK

Risk-on sentiment is dominating as investors digest the U.S.–China trade truce. A 90-day tariff cut truce is lifting equity futures and driving rotation into cyclicals and tech. Key indexes breaking above major moving averages improves the short-term bullish outlook. Fed commentary and CPI data Tuesday remain critical next catalysts.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.