The Day Ahead: Durable Goods, Fed Stance, and Earnings Shape Today’s Markets

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are modestly higher Friday, with S&P 500 E-mini futures up 0.1% at 6,409.00, Nasdaq 100 flat near 23,388.25, and Dow futures higher by 59 points (+0.13%) at 44,951.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted fresh intraday and closing record highs on Thursday, marking the S&P’s 13th record close of the year. The Nasdaq broke 21,000 earlier this week and continues to show relative strength.

All three major indexes are on track to close out the week with gains. The S&P 500 is up 1.1% week to date, while both the Nasdaq and Dow are tracking for roughly 1% weekly advances. Strength in corporate earnings, notably Alphabet, and improving trade sentiment—driven by recent deals with Japan and Indonesia—remain key market catalysts.

Key Economic Releases

At 12:30 GMT, the U.S. reports June Durable Goods Orders:

• Headline Durable Goods: Forecast +0.6% (Prior +0.5%)
• Core Capital Goods Orders (non-defense, ex-aircraft): Forecast +0.2% (Prior +0.1%)

Durable goods data will be watched for signs of capex resilience. A stronger-than-expected print could signal sustained business investment momentum, potentially reinforcing the Fed’s hold stance. Conversely, weakness may bolster dovish expectations heading into next week’s FOMC.

Notable Earnings

Key earnings reports before the open include:

• Aon (AON): $3.40 est
• AutoNation (AN): $4.69
• Booz Allen (BAH): $1.46
• Centene (CNC): $0.19
• Charter (CHTR): $9.58
• HCA Healthcare (HCA): $6.27
• Lear (LEA): $3.25
• Phillips 66 (PSX): $1.67
• Saia (SAIA): $2.40
• TriNet (TNET): $1.02

These results will influence sector rotation and overall market breadth.

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 E-mini last traded at 6,409.00. Resistance is at 6,421.25. Support levels sit at 6,318.75 and 6,241.00. Key moving averages: 50-day at 6,142.4 and 200-day at 6,009.44.

The Nasdaq 100 E-mini last traded at 23,388.25. Resistance is at 23,441.75. Support layers are 23,108.00, 22,803.00, followed by the 50-day at 22,349.4 and 200-day at 21,417.94.

The Dow E-mini last traded at 44,951. Resistance sits at 45,234, 45,885, and 46,326. Support rests at 44,423 and 43,973, with the 200-day at 43,596 and 50-day at 43,567.6.

Outlook

Momentum remains bullish into the final session of the week, with equities extending gains on strong earnings and supportive trade news. The path to new highs has been led by megacaps, but traders are increasingly focused on whether breadth can improve to sustain the rally.

Today’s durable goods print may briefly influence rate-sensitive sectors, but traders are positioning for next week’s FOMC decision, where the Fed is expected to hold rates steady. However, the tone of the statement and Powell’s press conference could shift rate path expectations into Q4.

Headline risk from potential new trade announcements ahead of the Aug. 1 tariff deadline also looms. With volatility suppressed and indexes extended, traders should stay tactical—watching for sector rotation, rising resistance zones, and potential news-driven reversals into month-end.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.