The Day Ahead: Markets Brace for Retail Sales and Geopolitical Volatility Today

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are under pressure Tuesday as Israel-Iran tensions escalate. Dow futures are down 0.7%, S&P 500 futures off 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures lower by 0.58%. Risk sentiment deteriorated overnight after former President Trump urged evacuation of Tehran, coinciding with a spike in crude prices and safe-haven bond buying.

Monday’s regular session closed green across the board. The Dow gained over 300 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.9%, and the Nasdaq advanced 1.5%, helped by a brief retreat in oil prices. But with no signs of de-escalation, geopolitical risk is now back in focus ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision.

Key Economic Releases

Tuesday, June 17 (All times GMT)

• 12:30 – Core Retail Sales (May):
  • Forecast: +0.2% | Previous: +0.1%
• 12:30 – Retail Sales (May):
  • Forecast: -0.5% | Previous: +0.1%
• 12:30 – Import Prices (May):
  • Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: +0.1%
• 13:15 – Capacity Utilization Rate:
  • Forecast: 77.7% | Previous: 77.7%
• 13:15 – Industrial Production (May):
  • Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.0%
• 14:00 – Business Inventories (Apr):
  • Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: +0.1%
• 14:00 – NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun):
  • Forecast: 36 | Previous: 34
• 20:30 – API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

Traders will focus on retail and core sales for signs of consumer resilience. A surprise beat in core or control group components could tilt expectations for future Fed policy. Weak industrial production or business inventories may weigh on Q2 GDP forecasts.

Notable Earnings

Before the Open:

• JBL (Jabil Inc.)
  • Est. EPS: $2.29
  • Watch for supply chain commentary and AI hardware exposure.
• WLY (Wiley)
  • Est. EPS: $1.27
  • Focus on digital education and publishing revenue trends.

After the Close:

• LZB (La-Z-Boy Inc.)
  • Est. EPS: $0.93
  • Key for reading middle-income discretionary spend and order backlogs.

Commodities, Crypto, and Bonds

WTI crude oil futures surged ~2% overnight as military operations intensified. The bid for energy reflects higher risk premium amid continued missile exchanges.

Treasury yields moved lower: the 10-year sits at 4.432% (-2 bps) and the 2-year at 3.956% (-1.3 bps). The curve remains flat, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate announcement.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 Index Futures – Stalling Below Key Resistance

Rejection at 6,127.00 leaves resistance intact. Initial support at 5,959.41 (200-day SMA), secondary at 5,769.80 (50-day SMA). Breakout level above remains 6,127.00 and 6,288.75.

Nasdaq 100 Index Futures – Capped Under 22,322.50

Support holding near 21,106.63 (200-day SMA). Breakdown below 20,943.50 opens path to 20,595.40. Resistance still 22,322.50 and 22,873.25.

Dow Jones Index Futures – Rangebound Below Highs

Failure near 42,645 keeps index below the 43,516 peak. Support rests at 41,705.90 (50-day SMA), then 41,552 swing low.

Outlook

Today’s trade is shaped by geopolitical volatility and a dense economic docket. Retail sales and production data will help clarify U.S. growth tone heading into the Fed’s rate call. Jabil and La-Z-Boy earnings will offer key signals on supply chains and discretionary demand. Risk bias remains defensive.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.