The Day Ahead: Markets Eye Jobs Report and Earnings Today After China Trade Boost

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are sharply higher Friday morning after China signaled a willingness to restart trade talks with the U.S. S&P 500 futures are up 0.58%, Nasdaq 100 futures have gained 0.35%, and Dow futures are leading with a 0.82% jump, or 333 points.

This risk-on mood builds on Thursday’s session, where the Nasdaq rose 1.5% and the S&P 500 and Dow extended their eight-session winning streaks.

Amazon is down 2% in pre-market trade after issuing light guidance and citing tariff and trade policy concerns. Apple is off 4% after Services revenue missed expectations and the company flagged $900 million in added tariff-related costs for the current quarter.

Traders are now positioned for the April jobs report and a heavy earnings slate before the bell.

Key Economic Releases

At 12:30 GMT, the April jobs report hits. Street expectations are for +133,000 jobs added, down from +228,000 in March.

The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% MoM / 3.9% YoY.

Markets may shrug off a soft print around 130K, but anything closer to 100K or below could reignite recession worries, especially after weak ADP numbers, GDP contraction, and surging jobless claims earlier this week.

Notable Earnings

Before the Opening Bell (all times GMT):

• Exxon Mobil (XOM, 10:30 GMT): Est. EPS $1.70 on $86.09B revenue
• Chevron (CVX, 10:15 GMT): Est. EPS $2.18 on $48.08B revenue
• Shell (SHEL, 06:00 GMT): EPS $1.84 beat (+11.5%); revenue $69.23B (–12.5% YoY)
• Cigna (CI, 10:00 GMT): Est. EPS $6.35 on $60.39B revenue
• Rowe Price (TROW, 11:00 GMT): Est. EPS $2.13 on $1.78B revenue
• Eaton Corp (ETN, 10:30 GMT): Est. EPS $2.71 on $6.25B revenue
• DuPont (DD, 10:00 GMT): Est. EPS $0.95 on $3.04B revenue
• Franklin Resources (BEN, 12:30 GMT): Est. EPS $0.47 on $1.98B revenue
• FuboTV (FUBO, 11:30 GMT): Est. EPS –$0.03 on $415.45M revenue

Energy and industrial names dominate the morning slate. Shell’s solid EPS beat despite lower revenue may support oil majors early. Traders will also be watching Cigna and Eaton closely for sector read-throughs in healthcare and industrials.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 E-mini futures are trading at 5652.50 in the pre-market session, marking a clean breakout above the 50-day SMA at 5625.92. Price is now approaching the next major resistance at the 200-day SMA (5873.87). The uptrend remains intact after eight straight green daily candles, with strong momentum following the late-April reversal.

Immediate support is seen near the 5362.75 breakout zone. A move above the 200-day could target the March high at 6236.50. Price action into today’s NFP print will be key for confirmation.

The Day Ahead Outlook

The tape is starting strong on renewed China trade optimism, with broad gains in equity futures. Whether this rally holds will depend on the April jobs report.

As long as payrolls land near expectations, the market is positioned to extend its rally into the weekend. A weaker print below 100K could shift sentiment quickly, especially with macro uncertainty and tariff overhangs still in play. Expect heavy price action around 12:30 GMT.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.