The Day Ahead: Yields and Home Depot in Focus Today as Markets Search for Direction

Stocks Ease Off Highs as Rally Stalls Near Resistance

U.S. equity futures are ticking lower Tuesday morning as traders question whether the five-week rally can extend further. S&P 500 futures are off 0.16%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.23%, and Dow futures slipping 29 points (-0.07%). Monday’s modest gains marked the S&P 500’s sixth straight advance, with the index now trading just 3% below its record high.

Leadership remains concentrated in megacap tech. The Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) is up over 13% this month, while QQQ has climbed 9.8%. Broader benchmarks like SPY and RSP are trailing. Apple stands out as a laggard, down 1.8% month to date.

Fed-Speak Floods the Tape: Barkin, Musalem, Daly, Hammack on Deck

Four Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak today, offering fresh insight into the central bank’s rate stance:

• Thomas Barkin (Richmond) at 13:00 GMT
• Alberto Musalem (St. Louis) at 17:00 GMT
• Mary Daly (San Francisco) and Beth Hammack (Cleveland) at 23:00 GMT

With Treasury markets already jittery, any shift in tone could quickly impact rate expectations and risk appetite.

Retail and Cybersecurity in Focus: Home Depot and Palo Alto Lead Earnings Slate

Home Depot (HD) is expected to post Q1 earnings of $3.59 per share on $39.1B in revenue. UBS forecasts stable consumer demand and notes management’s confidence in managing tariff pressures thanks to HD’s scale and needs-driven demand.

Pre-market names to watch:

• Amer Sports (AS): EPS est. $0.15
• Bilibili (BILI): EPS est. $0.52
• Eagle Materials (EXP): EPS est. $2.48

After the bell, traders will focus on:

• Toll Brothers (TOL): EPS est. $2.83
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW): EPS est. $0.77 on $2.28B revenue. Strong cybersecurity demand expected, but rich valuation puts pressure on guidance.
• Keysight Technologies (KEYS): EPS est. $1.65
• Modine Manufacturing (MOD): EPS est. $0.95

Commodities Drift: Gold Slips, Oil Ticks Higher Amid Geopolitical Crosscurrents

Gold is retreating as optimism over a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and a firmer U.S. dollar weigh on safe-haven demand. Oil prices are nudging higher on signs U.S.-Iran nuclear talks may stall, which could curb future Iranian exports. Brent is holding near $65.66, WTI at $62.85.

S&P Futures Face Overhead Pressure Near 6,000

The S&P 500 E-mini is stalling below key resistance at 5,987.50 and 6,000.00, with trend support at the 50-day moving average at 5,881.36. After a sharp breakout above both moving averages, price action is stretched. A short-term pullback remains a risk unless bulls can reclaim and hold new highs.

Outlook: Rally Meets Resistance as Fed, Moody’s, and Earnings Take Center Stage

Today’s session presents a critical test for bulls. With equities extended and futures fading near resistance, traders are watching whether tech leadership and upbeat earnings can offset growing macro pressures.

The Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit has added to Treasury market fragility, amplifying rate sensitivity ahead of multiple Fed speakers.

Key earnings—especially from Home Depot and Palo Alto Networks—will shape sentiment around consumer strength and enterprise tech.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.