The Week Ahead: Markets Eye Inflation Data, Fed Minutes and War Risks

Market Overview

U.S. equities rebounded last week, snapping a five-week losing streak as geopolitical concerns eased slightly. The S&P 500 closed at 6,582.69, up +213.84 (+3.36%). The Nasdaq Composite gained +930.83 (+4.44%) to finish at 21,879.18. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +1,338.03 (+2.96%) to 46,504.68.

The rally was driven by hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East. Early signals suggesting a potential wind-down in the Iran conflict supported risk appetite and pushed equities higher at the start of the week.

However, uncertainty remains elevated. Mixed messaging around the duration of military operations and unresolved risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz kept oil prices firm and limited follow-through.

Markets continue to focus on the duration of the oil shock. A short disruption is seen as manageable for growth and equities, while a prolonged supply disruption raises recession risks globally.

U.S. economic data remains supportive. Retail sales and ISM manufacturing came in above expectations, while payrolls rose 178,000 in March, pointing to steady growth despite geopolitical stress.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Apr 6
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled.
Economic Releases:
• 14:00 GMT – ISM Services PMI, forecast 54.8 (prior 56.1)
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Tuesday, Apr 7
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled.
Economic Releases:
• 12:15 GMT – ADP Employment Change (prior 10.0K)
• 12:30 GMT – Core Durable Goods Orders, forecast 0.5% (prior 0.4%)
• 12:30 GMT – Durable Goods Orders, forecast -1.0% (prior 0.0%)
• 16:35 GMT – Fed Goolsbee speaks
• 19:00 GMT – Consumer Credit, forecast 11.4B (prior 8.0B)
After the Close:
• Greenbrier (GBX), est. $0.82
• Levi Strauss (LEVI), est. $0.37
• Phoenix Education (PXED), est. $0.34

Wednesday, Apr 8
Before the Open:
• Delta Air Lines (DAL), est. $0.62
• RPM (RPM), est. $0.35
Economic Releases:
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories (prior 5.5M)
• 17:01 GMT – 10-Year Bond Auction
• 18:00 GMT – FOMC Minutes
After the Close:
• Applied Digital (APLD), est. -$0.15
• Constellation Brands (STZ), est. $1.71
• PriceSmart (PSMT), est. $1.57

Thursday, Apr 9
Before the Open:
• Neogen (NEOG), est. $0.06
• Simply Good Foods (SMPL), est. $0.40
• Wealthfront (WLTH), est. $0.12
Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Core PCE, forecast 0.4% (prior 0.4%)
• 12:30 GMT – GDP Final, forecast 0.7% (prior 0.7%)
• 12:30 GMT – Jobless Claims, forecast 210K (prior 202K)
• 14:00 GMT – Wholesale Inventories, forecast -0.5% (prior -0.5%)
After the Close:
• WD-40 (WDFC), est. $1.42

Friday, Apr 10
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled.
Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Core CPI, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
• 12:30 GMT – CPI, forecast 1.0% (prior 0.3%)
• 14:00 GMT – Michigan Sentiment, forecast 52.1 (prior 53.3)
After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Central Bank Activity

Tuesday: Goolsbee (FOMC Member) – 16:35 GMT
Tuesday: Jefferson (Fed Governor) – 21:50 GMT
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes – 18:00 GMT

Fed commentary and minutes will be closely watched for signals on inflation risks tied to energy prices and the policy path. Markets expect a continued wait-and-see stance.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 46,504.68 (+2.96%), support at 45,673.06 (52-Week SMA), 45,057.28, 41,921.97 then 45,673.06, resistance at 47,785.04, 48,428.79 and 50,512.79.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 21,879.18 (+4.44%), support at 21,502.72 (52-Weekly SMA), 20,690.25, 19,402.01, then 18,312.17, resistance at 22,355.12, 22,748.03 and 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,582.69 (+3.36%), support at 6,458.84 (52-Week SMA), 6316.91, 5,918.66, then 5,662.93, resistance at 6,659.60, 6,740.00 and 7,002.28.

All major indices regained their rising 52-week SMAs after briefly crossing to the weakside of this indicator.

Outlook

Markets enter the week focused on inflation data and Fed signals. PCE and CPI will be critical in assessing the early impact of higher energy prices on consumer inflation.

Fed minutes and speaker commentary could reinforce expectations that policy remains on hold, particularly as inflation risks persist and growth data holds steady.

Geopolitical developments and oil price direction remain key. The duration of the supply disruption will continue to influence inflation expectations and near-term equity performance.

Technically, traders should continue to watch the 52-week moving averages for direction.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.